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Traders estimate nearly a 40% chance that inflation will exceed 5% this year.
Golden Finance reports that on May 13th, despite April’s price growth rate reaching the fastest level since May 2023 and the overall annual inflation rate reaching 3.8%, traders on the prediction market platform believe that the inflation peak has not yet arrived.
Traders on the Kalshi platform believe that by 2026, the price increase will almost certainly surpass 4%, and they think there is nearly a two-thirds chance of exceeding 4.5%. Traders also believe that the probability of inflation surpassing 5% this year is close to 40%.
This is significantly higher than Wall Street’s expectations. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect inflation to peak at an average of 3.8% this quarter and to fall back to 2.8% by the end of the year.