#美国4月CPI上涨3.8% After the April US CPI data was released, market expectations for rate cuts this year were essentially eliminated, and some even began betting on rate hikes. This data is fundamentally driven by a "energy shock + technical adjustment of housing inflation," which needs to be viewed separately; its impact on crypto assets also shows a structural divergence.

---

📌 One chart to see everything: The full picture of April CPI

Indicator Release Value Market Expectation Previous (March) Change Direction
YoY CPI 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 🔺 Surpassed expectations, rising
MoM CPI 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 📉 In line with expectations, falling from previous
Core CPI YoY 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 🔺 Highest since September 2025
Core CPI MoM 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 🔺 Significantly above expectations, accelerating trend

Data source: U.S. Department of Labor, released May 12

Two core contradictions have emerged: YoY CPI hit the highest since May 2023 (3.8%), but the MoM growth slowed from 0.9% to 0.6%. The former is a trend signal, while the latter reflects marginal improvement month-over-month.

---

🧠 Two key drivers: Energy shock + technical noise

🔋 Driver One: Dominated by energy prices, full transmission of shocks

Energy inflation soared 17.9% YoY, with gasoline prices up 28.4% YoY, contributing over 40% to the overall CPI increase. The ongoing US-Iran conflict keeps WTI crude near $101/barrel. More concerning is the spreading transmission effect—April food prices rose 0.7% MoM, the largest increase in nearly four years, with noticeable rises in meats, dairy, and fresh produce, indicating lagged transmission from transportation and agricultural costs. The sharp rise in airline ticket prices may relate to jet fuel costs and also reflect broader price pressures. PNF Financial Services Group’s chief economist bluntly states, "Inflation is accelerating again."

🏠 Driver Two: Technical disturbance in housing inflation—the main reason and a source of misjudgment

Housing inflation in April jumped from +0.27% to +0.67% MoM, mainly due to sharp increases in rent (+0.55%) and owner’s equivalent rent (+0.53%), forming the core reason for the CPI beating expectations.

However, this surge mainly results from methodological adjustments in BLS data—due to missing data during the government shutdown last October, a geometric fill was used as a technical compensation. Excluding this technical disturbance, April’s core CPI should have been in line with or slightly below expectations.

This means that the "above expectations" core CPI reading contains a significant amount of real noise, which is the current focus of market debate.

---

📊 Market immediate reaction: expectations fully shift, major asset re-pricing

After the data release, the three major US stock index futures all declined, with Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1%. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.78%, a high since November 2025, and the dollar index strengthened to 106.8, a high for the year. Gold futures fell about 0.5% due to rising real interest rate expectations.

The most noteworthy policy expectation shifts:

· CME FedWatch shows: The market expects only an 18% chance of the Fed cutting rates by December 2026 (down from 62% a month ago), while the probability of at least one rate hike in 2026 exceeds 35%.
· Nick Timiraos of "New Federal Reserve News" points out: The April CPI report will not immediately change the Fed’s hawk-dove stance, but if data continues like this, dovish members will be passive, and discussions of rate hikes will be hard to marginalize. The future depends mainly on whether Persian Gulf energy transportation can return to normal.
· Many analysts believe the Fed’s next move is more likely to be rate hikes rather than cuts; the narrative of Powell having room to cut during his term has essentially disappeared.

---

🔗 Core transmission logic for crypto: Beware macro suppression, but also see structural divergence

The entire transmission chain is clear: high inflation → rising interest rate expectations (from "rate cuts disappear" to "rate hikes possible") → higher risk-free yields → suppression of liquidity premiums on risk assets.

However, crypto assets show obvious resilience and divergence in this data:

① Bitcoin (BTC)

Price remains above $80k after CPI release, basically flat over 24 hours, demonstrating resilience. The key logic: compliance mainstreaming—US spot ETFs continue to see net inflows; macro immunity narrative—institutions increasingly view it as digital gold hedge; limited selling pressure—miners’ holdings remain stable, and institutional selling momentum is weak.

② Ethereum (ETH)

ETH and XRP fell about 2.5% after CPI release. ETH’s risk exposure is higher: DeFi leverage needs to actively de-leverage under rising interest rate expectations; lack of direct catalysts from technical/upgrades—Glamsterdam upgrade (delayed to Q3 in June) is not priced in; ETH spot ETF faces short-term pressure—BlackRock’s ETHA saw over $200 million net outflows in early May over two days.

③ Overall crypto market outlook

Key observation 1: May CPI (due June 10)—will verify whether energy transmission has spread to services, testing the "second inflation" path in the US.
Key observation 2: US-Iran conflict trajectory—if energy prices stay high, the Fed is unlikely to discuss rate cuts in summer, and risk assets will face prolonged hawkish pressure.
Key observation 3: New Fed Chair Waller’s policy signals—the market is waiting for clear stance, reflected in further adjustments to rate hike expectations.

---

This CPI data is essentially a combination of "energy shock + amplified core inflation readings due to technical disturbance." In the short term, avoid overly linear extrapolation of inflation trends, but interest rate expectations have irreversibly shifted from rate cuts to delays or hikes. Medium- to long-term risks still lean downward.

Crypto response strategies:

· BTC: Key psychological level at $80K; if it can hold high-range oscillations, liquidity recovery is possible; a break below warrants attention to secondary macro transmission shocks.
· ETH: More sensitive to interest rates, with greater short-term pressure than BTC; requires stronger catalysts (Glamsterdam upgrade, ETF institutional demand validation) to break the deadlock.
· Overall position management: It’s advisable not to increase long exposure during sharp shifts in rate expectations; wait for the May CPI data to provide updated guidance. Maintaining risk preference hierarchy in crypto—BTC > ETH—remains reasonable, but ETH should be more cautious amid macro uncertainties.