#Polymarket每日热点 On May 13, the crypto market remains choppy, with Ethereum dipping slightly by 0.87% and temporarily hovering around $2,300. From the perspective of prediction markets, it is crucial to recognize the current multi-layered battle landscape—

📊 Polymarket bets: bullish and bearish positions hanging side by side

As of May 13, Polymarket’s real-money odds show that the probability of ETH being above $2,400 in May is as high as 92%, while the probability of falling below $2,200 in the same period is also 60%. Market expectations present a typical asymmetric distribution—bullish is the mainstream scenario, but short-term downside risk is also deeply priced in.

More forward-looking is the fact that the probability of ETH reaching $1,500 within 2026 is as high as 56%. This is not an “overly pessimistic assumption” from institutional research reports; rather, it is the result of market participants directly placing real bets. It reflects deep concerns among participants in the crypto market about the medium- to long-term macro environment and Ethereum’s competitive landscape.

📉 Technicals: a bearish alignment, with weak oscillation as the main theme

As of the afternoon of May 13, ETH’s live quotations are $2,291–$2,299. The 24-hour drop is about 0.44%, and over the past nearly 7 days it has fallen cumulatively by 2.71%. All technical indicators have turned bearish.

The moving average system shows a short-term “death cross.” The MACD is diverging below the zero axis, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands is tilting downward, and the price has fallen below the 100-hour simple moving average. The market is currently in a “bear flag” or downward-channel structure. If it cannot hold the initial support at $2,250, and once it effectively breaks below the $2,200 whole-number level, the medium-term could accelerate downward toward $2,150 and even $2,100. In the short term, any rebound without volume support is considered a bull trap.

🔥 Catalysts and potential turning points

On May 13, the Ethereum Foundation, together with multiple wallets and security organizations, officially launched the Clear Signing open standard. Centered on ERC-7730, this security upgrade replaces the unreadable hexadecimal data in user signatures with human-readable interactive content, putting an end to the long-standing “blind signing” risk that has troubled DeFi users.

In addition, although the Glamsterdam upgrade was delayed from its original June timeline to the third quarter of 2026, the narrative that raises the Gas limit from about 60 million to 200 million, and that expects L1 throughput to increase by threefold, still has not been fully priced into the market price.

On the funding/flows side, ETH spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $131 million yesterday. BlackRock’s ETHA saw a net outflow of $102 million. This indicates that short-term profit-taking is closing positions in a concentrated manner, further adding to near-term selling pressure.

⚖️ Bull and bear scenario projections

Scenario　Trigger Conditions　Target Range
Bearish 🔻　Breaks below $2,250 → effectively breaks below $2,200　$2,150–$2,100
Bullish 🔺　Holds above $2,250 → rebounds and breaks through $2,320–$2,340　$2,375–$2,420
Sideways 🔄　Within the $2,250–$2,340 range　maintains the current pattern

🧭 Summary and outlook

Ethereum is currently in a phase of periodic “tug-of-war” where weak technical conditions intertwine with structurally positive fundamentals. Technical analysis points to bearish dominance in the short term. Looking into the medium term, factors such as the progress of the Glamsterdam upgrade, the gradual clarity of the stablecoin regulatory framework, and the structurally locked supply from ETH staking could provide a potential rebound base for the second half of 2026. The key watershed lies in whether ETH can regain the key technical level of $2,419 (MA50) above; otherwise, the medium-term trend will likely remain dominated by weak oscillation.