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After the US CPI was announced, everyone online was asking: Why are prices rising, but the stock market still smiling?
The US April CPI increased by 3.8%. Logically, with high inflation, the market should be nervous. But surprisingly, US stocks often rise first.
Many netizens can't understand:
"Prices are up, shouldn't that be bearish?"
Welcome to the modern financial world—where the logic is often more complicated than love.
What the market truly cares about is not "whether it rose," but "whether it was more outrageous than expected." This time, 3.8%, although still high, at least didn't blow through the market’s psychological line. So the first reaction from capital was: "Thank goodness, it’s not completely out of control."
Thus, AI stocks continue to celebrate wildly.
Now, the US stock market has entered a strange state:
Seven companies rise, and the whole market can pretend it's a bull market.
Especially NVIDIA, which is no longer just a stock but more like a religion. Investors firmly believe: as long as AI continues to develop, valuations can break through the galaxy.
But the reality isn’t so rosy.
Ordinary American families’ biggest hobby now is researching coupons. Discount sections in supermarkets are more lively than concerts. Young people are starting to popularize "low-cost happiness": freeloading on samples at Costco, learning to save money on TikTok, treating coffee machines as luxury items.
Meanwhile, US government debt is approaching an "astronomical performance art" stage. High interest rates cause debt interest to soar, and fiscal pressure is mounting. Many analysts are beginning to worry: if inflation stays above 3% long-term, the US might enter a dangerous cycle of "high interest rates + high debt."
Even more interesting, the market is now showing a kind of "bad news as good news" phenomenon:
If the economy is too strong—indicating no rate cuts—it's bearish;
If the economy worsens—indicating possible rate cuts—it's bullish;
But if it’s too bad—then it becomes bearish again.
Investors are now almost trained as philosophers.
The crypto market is not idle either. Bitcoin fluctuates wildly, and altcoins are collectively acting up. Some see Bitcoin reaching $100k, while others believe the next crash is on its way.
But ultimately, this 3.8% CPI indicates:
US inflation has not been truly tamed.
In the past, people worried about "malignant inflation"; now, they worry about "chronic inflation"—not immediately deadly, but capable of long-term economic torment.
In a nutshell:
The US economy is now like a sports car with both the accelerator and brake pressed to the floor.