#沃什确认出任美联储主席

On May 12th, local time, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board with 51 votes in favor and 45 against. Since the Fed Chair must be chosen from among the Board members, this 14-year appointment paves the way for Warsh to succeed as Chair.

The Senate is expected to hold a final vote on Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair on May 14th local time, and he is likely to smoothly take over when Powell's term ends this Friday, May 15th.

📋 Background: Who is Warsh

· Background: 56 years old, graduated from Stanford University and Harvard Law School, with experience in investment banking, White House policy, and Federal Reserve Board.
· Connections: His wife is an heir to Estée Lauder, and his father-in-law is a longtime friend of Trump, which has fueled speculation that he is influenced by the White House.

🤔 Policy Stance: The seemingly contradictory "Hawk-Dove" combination

· Cutting rates and shrinking the balance sheet simultaneously: Early in his career, he was hawkish, but recently he has supported rate cuts. His view is to shrink the massive balance sheet to eliminate bubbles, creating a safe space for future rate cuts, aiming to respond to rate cut demands while maintaining technical independence.
· Shift in stance and independence controversy: He once promised to support rate cuts, conflicting with his early stance. But he also explicitly stated he is not a "puppet of the President," emphasizing the importance of independence.
· Reform framework and asset disposal: Advocates establishing a "new inflation framework" and has promised to sell over $100 million in assets if appointed to address potential conflicts of interest.

📊 Challenges ahead: A challenging economic environment

· Economic issues: Facing inflation driven by Middle East tensions and tariffs (3.3%, the highest in nearly two years), amid political pressure to cut rates—an "impossible triangle."
· Market outlook: Markets are cautious about his monetary policy stance, with some analysts suggesting he may prefer to use quantitative easing (i.e., "money printing") rather than simply cutting rates to stimulate the economy.