$BTC Current report at 81,032, a slight intraday decline of 0.27%, but the overall pattern is worth deep thought. Technical contradictions are intensifying. The daily MA7 > MA30 > MA120 bullish arrangement remains intact, and the 4-hour ADX=31.4 indicates a relatively strong trend — the medium-term trend has not broken. But short-term signals have already weakened: the 15-minute closing price broke below MA20 (81,105), and from May 10-12, a clear double top pattern formed, with two attempts to rise near 82,000 both encountering resistance and falling back, breaking the neckline, confirming the top signal clearly. More notably, the 4-hour MACD shows a bullish divergence — price made a new low but volume bars increased, which is a typical warning of a pullback. Coupled with the 24-hour volume expansion decline, short-term selling pressure is being released.

Key trigger points:
🔴 Short trigger: if it falls below the 24-hour low of 79,848, the double top neckline fails, the downward space opens, targeting around 78,000.
🟢 Long trigger: if volume returns above 81,300 and stabilizes above MA20, the double top is negated, and a long position can be followed, with a stop-loss set at 80,400 (4-hour SAR).
The fear and greed index is at 42, indicating market fear, but Saylor continues to buy + BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 6 consecutive weeks, supporting the fundamentals strongly. The current position is at a decision point; don’t rush into heavy positions, wait for signals to confirm before acting.