I’ve been following the logic behind the US-Iran war lately. To be honest, while it may seem on the surface like a nuclear weapons issue, the deeper factors involved go far beyond that.

Looking back, this conflict didn’t just erupt out of nowhere. In 1953, the CIA in the United States orchestrated a coup to overthrow Mossadegh. Then in 1979, the Islamic Revolution completely flipped the situation. Since then, the US and Iran have been fighting a “shadow war,” vying with each other through proxy forces across the Middle East.

The real turning point was the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, which temporarily froze Iran’s nuclear program. But Trump directly withdrew from it in 2018, and that move escalated tensions. Now Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has already surpassed 400 kilograms, with a concentration reaching 60%—very close to weapons-grade levels. For the United States, the window to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear is closing rapidly, which is also why direct military actions have been escalating recently.

But I think many people are overlooking the real core issue—energy. Iran has 208 billion barrels of oil and 1,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. More importantly, it controls the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels of oil pass through every day, accounting for 20% of global oil supply. If Iran really has nuclear weapons, its ability to control energy flows would increase significantly, pulling global energy prices, transportation costs, and market inflation along with it.

This also helps explain why Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE immediately voiced support. They understand what an escalation of the US-Iran war would mean—restructuring regional affairs and reshuffling alliances. Iran has already responded by attacking US military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE. This isn’t a “shadow war” anymore—it’s open, real confrontation.

From a market perspective, this is not only geopolitical risk, but also a warning sign of an energy crisis. Once the global energy supply chain is disrupted, the knock-on effects will quickly spread to other markets. It’s worth closely monitoring how things develop next.