Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Turn Positive for the First Time in 7 Months: Is 2023 Repeating, or Is 2022 Just a Fakeout?

Mining Little Sheep
Followed
Brothers, don’t rush to call a bull market.
I know you saw it— that damn “Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator” finally turned positive. Seven months, since dropping from 126k, for the first time.
Price rebounded from 60k to 81k, closing higher for three consecutive months. Bull Score also rose to 50. ETF net inflow was $2.44 billion, and whales added 142 addresses in over six months. The data is right here, looking pretty convincing.
But do you remember March 2022, when the same Bull Score also hit 50, and then?
Guess what happened a week later. The price plummeted from 47k all the way down to 16k.
The same indicator, two different scripts.
Bullish side:
- The Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time in seven months, and this isn’t some shoddy metric; it looks at the relationship between the P&L index and the 365-day moving average.
- Bull Score reaching 50 is the first time since the bear market entered the neutral zone.
- ETF net inflow in April was $2.44 billion, the strongest month since October last year.
- Whales—those large holders with over 1,000 bitcoins—added 142 addresses in the past six months.
- The RHODL ratio is now 4.5, the third-highest in history. Where were the previous two times? At the bottoms in 2015 and 2022. Both followed bull markets.
Bearish side:
- In March 2022, the Bull Score was also 50, but it only lasted about a week before cooling off. Everyone knows what happened next.
- During the last bear market, the indicator stayed in negative territory for 12 months before turning positive. This time, it only took 3 months. Do you call that quick recovery, or unstable foundations?
- StoneX’s forecast is straightforward: based on the four-year halving cycle, the bottom might be around $50k, seen in Q4. You’re now at $81k, still 38% above the bottom.
So the question is: do you trust the data or history?
When it drops, you think it will rise, and it slaps you; when you think it will fall, it throws you off the train.
That’s the current state.
The indicator turned positive, but after 2022, it fell 70%. ETF is buying, but institutions will also cut losses. Whales are adding positions, but their buying cycles are measured in years—you can’t hold onto it.
The real painful truth is: on-chain data never lies, but those interpreting the data are always fooling themselves.
If you want to see a bull market, find evidence of a bull.
If you want to see a bear market, find evidence of a bear.
This indicator turning positive can be explained in both directions.
So what’s the plan?
I’ll give you an observation anchor, don’t guess the direction—look at the line.
$82k. The 200-day moving average.
Only if it stabilizes can we talk about a reversal. If it doesn’t, it’s just a replay of 2022.
Remember: “A positive indicator doesn’t mean the bull is back, it just means the emergency notice has been upgraded to a regular hospital room.”
You’re still in the hospital, don’t rush to celebrate discharge.
“The most panic phase may be over, but the most greedy phase has yet to come.” #Gate广场五月交易分享
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