📊 Ethereum Price Trend Analysis on May 13

1. Macro Pressure Still Remains the Main Theme

The U.S. April CPI year-over-year rate reached 3.8%, far exceeding the previous value of 3.3%, hitting the highest level since June 2023. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June surged to 97.6%, and Bank of America even pushed back its first rate-cut forecast to 2027. Persistent expectations of high interest rates continue to weigh on crypto assets; after the CPI release, ETH briefly fell below $2,260, and roughly $320 million was liquidated across the entire market.

2. Current Price Situation: Narrow-Range Consolidation

As of May 13, ETH has been consolidating narrowly in the $2,280 to $2,310 range. It is currently around $2,293, down about 0.94% over the past 24 hours. After the inflation spike is digested, market sentiment has recovered somewhat from panic, but there is still no clear direction.

3. Technicals: Trapped in a Tug-of-War

ETH is currently in a standoff between bullish defense and bearish suppression. The first major resistance is at $2,320. Above $2,350 is a dense suppression zone formed by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, making a breakout difficult. The strongest support is at $2,250—also the lower bound of the past month’s trading range—where buying power is strong. The RSI is hovering below 50, and the MACD is still below the zero line, indicating that upside momentum remains weak.

4. Capital Flows: ETFs Continue to Bleed Out

Yesterday, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net outflows of $131 million. BlackRock’s ETHA saw a daily net outflow of as much as $102 million. In the same period, Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of about $4.5 billion, clearly showing stronger preference for Bitcoin over ETH.

5. Polymarket Prediction Probabilities

According to data from the prediction market, the probability of ETH falling to $2,200 in May is as high as 70%, while the probability of rising to $2,400 is 83%. Volatility expectations are clearly skewed to the downside.

Overall, in the short term, ETH is likely to continue trading in a range of $2,250 to $2,350, with the direction depending on the emergence of additional macro or on-chain catalysts.

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