Lithium carbonate prices return to 200k yuan, leading lithium battery giants' performance and stock prices rise together

[Global Times Finance and Economics Comprehensive Report] Since May 2026, the spot prices of lithium carbonate have consecutively broken through key integer thresholds, returning to 200k yuan/ton after more than two years. After the May Day holiday, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices approached 195k yuan/ton, and the main futures contract briefly touched 201.5k yuan/ton during trading, hitting a new high in over two years. The A-share lithium battery concept sector immediately saw a surge in limit-up stocks, with Wenzhou Hongfeng, KeKe Blue Sky, Lingyun Shares, and others hitting the daily limit, making the lithium sector the hottest track in the secondary market.

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The current strong rise in lithium prices is driven by the explosive growth in energy storage demand and supply contraction resonance. UBS’s latest research report forecasts that by 2026, global lithium demand will increase by 16% year-on-year to 1.97 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with energy storage batteries (ESS) demand growing at a staggering 60% year-on-year, becoming the core engine of this round of price adjustments; on the supply side, Zimbabwe’s lithium concentrate export ban has further tightened supply, and UBS’s risk-weighted supply forecast only increases by about 13% to 1.91 million tons of LCE, creating a supply-demand gap of approximately 65k tons of LCE.

Lithium prices breaking free from the lows have directly driven upstream mining companies’ performance to soar. In the first quarter of 2026, Ganfeng Lithium’s net profit attributable to parent was 200k yuan, a year-on-year increase of 616.34%; Tianqi Lithium’s net profit attributable to parent was 195k yuan, a huge increase of 1699.12%; Salt Lake Shares’ net profit attributable to parent was 201.5k yuan, up 154.78% year-on-year; Shengxin Lithium Energy turned losses into profits, with nearly 400% growth. The world’s largest lithium producer, Albemarle, saw its first-quarter net profit increase by over 547% year-on-year, with lithium business revenue up 70%. Since July last year, Ganfeng Lithium’s A-shares have risen over 150%, and Salt Lake Shares’ market value has surpassed 200 billion yuan, marking a full rebound from the lows to the peak in the lithium mining sector.

Morgan Stanley believes that in 2026, there will be a supply gap in lithium carbonate, and the combined effect of energy storage demand and rising electric vehicle penetration will push lithium prices to 250k yuan/ton. However, Goldman Sachs holds a conservative stance, expecting a 20% to 22% oversupply of global lithium mines in the second half of 2026, with prices falling back to marginal costs from the second half of 2026 to 2028. UBS states that the current implied price of Chinese lithium stocks is about 170k yuan/ton, far below the spot quotation; if lithium price forecasts are realized, relevant stocks have significant revaluation potential. (Sailor)