I just reread what the concept of a black swan is, and I find it quite important for understanding risks in crypto. Essentially, a black swan refers to rare, unexpected events that no one can predict, but once they happen, they cause devastating impact. Nassim Taleb is the person who put forward this concept, and in the cryptocurrency market, it is clearly reflected through sudden shocks.

What does the concept of a black swan mean when applied to crypto? These are unexpected, unpredictable events that cause price fluctuations, shake investor confidence, and disrupt market liquidity. These events create major opportunities for those who are prepared, but they also cause severe losses for those who aren’t.

Looking back at history, there are quite a few clear, typical examples. COVID-19 from late 2019 to 2020 was a global shock that upended the economy and financial markets. Then came the collapse of FTX in 2022—an enormous exchange that suddenly went bankrupt, dragging Bitcoin and the entire market down sharply. In the same year, LUNA and UST collapsed, destroying the Terra ecosystem and wiping out tens of billions of USD, while also completely erasing trust in algorithmic stablecoins.

At times, what constitutes a black swan actually comes from policy. China has repeatedly issued bans on crypto mining and trading; each time, the market saw a significant drop. In 2021, Bitcoin fell from its peak of 64.000 USD to below 30.000 USD within a few weeks, causing panic across the entire market.

The impact of these events can be quite severe. Liquidity can disappear entirely, so even if you want to sell, no one will buy. Investor confidence is harmed—especially for affected projects or exchanges. The wealth gap becomes sharply more polarized at this time: those with large capital can take advantage of low prices to accumulate assets, while retail investors suffer heavy losses.

What lessons can be learned from black swans? First, risk management is mandatory—never invest all your funds into a single asset. Second, diversify your portfolio across multiple projects and different types of assets. Third, always keep part of your capital in stablecoins or traditional assets so you’re ready to respond to shocks. Finally, closely monitor the news, because major events often originate from bankruptcies, bans, or system failures.