2026.5.13 Auntie's Thoughts Today

$ETH Yesterday, CPI exceeded expectations significantly, Auntie’s price also dipped to 2256, then followed Bitcoin’s rebound, but the strength was weak, failing to recover the 2300 level

Primarily bullish: around 2270-2290 with support at 2200, targeting 2350-2450
Secondary support: around 2350 with support at 2450, targeting 2250-2200

Macro downside risks are fully priced in, the market has entered a "dormant phase":
The extreme test of CPI expectations has been passed: yesterday’s CPI hit a new high since May 2023, Auntie only dropped 2.76% and quickly regained the 2250 support. If this were in Q1 2026, similar data would cause Auntie to plummet 8%-10%

PPI expectations have been priced in early: the market has already reacted to today’s PPI annual rate of 4.9%, so even slight surprises are unlikely to trigger panic selling, and may instead lead to a "drop the shoe" style rebound

Technical support forms multiple bottom resonance:
Daily-level strong support confirmed: 2250 USD is a triple bottom structure (April 28, May 6, May 12), also aligning with the 50-day moving average (2248 USD) and Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, which has not been effectively broken in the past month

Four-hour double bottom reversal: 2256-2260 USD forms a standard double bottom pattern, with a neckline at 2320 USD, once broken, it could open at least 100 USD upside, targeting 2350-2360 USD

Downward momentum has been completely exhausted:
Four-hour MACD green bars have shrunk for 12 consecutive periods, KDJ has a bullish crossover and is diverging upward, RSI has risen from oversold territory above 50, all short-term indicators point to a rebound

Signs of marginal improvement in capital flow:
Negative funding rate has narrowed significantly: Auntie perpetual contract funding rate shrank from -0.03%/hour a week ago to current -0.005%/hour, structural short positions are gradually closing and exiting

Open interest steadily increasing:
Auntie futures open interest rebounded from April lows of $18 billion to $21.5 billion, indicating funds are re-entering the Auntie market

Options market leans bullish:
Open interest for call options at the $2300 strike exceeds put options by 2.3 times, market makers have hedging needs at this level, providing support for the price #美国4月CPI上涨3.8% #沃什确认出任美联储主席