#Gate广场五月交易分享

Stay tuned! The outcome of the "Clarity Act" will determine Bitcoin's short-term fate.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is about to hold a markup vote on the Crypto Market Structure Act (Clarity Act), with committee members submitting over 100 amendments. Although bipartisan closed-door negotiations have taken place over the past few months, disagreements remain on key details. The focus of the amendments mainly centers on strengthening investor protection, improving the stablecoin regulatory framework, and increasing measures to prevent money laundering and illegal financing. Currently, whether the bill can pass smoothly through the committee remains uncertain, and Bitcoin hovers around $81,000 without much movement. The voting outcome may determine the short-term market direction:

‌1. Probability assessment of bill passage (about 50%)‌

‌Legislative window urgency‌

There are only ‌4 effective legislative weeks‌ left in the Senate (June), with the White House setting a ‌deadline of July 4th‌. If the committee cannot complete the markup vote by May, the chances of passing the bill this year will significantly decrease.

The key disagreements currently unresolved include: Democrats insisting on adding ‌"Ethics Clauses"‌ (prohibiting senior officials from profiting from crypto assets, directly targeting Trump family’s approximately $4.3 billion crypto interests), while Republicans oppose this clause. If no compromise is reached, the bill may pass the committee narrowly along party lines, but a full chamber vote will face greater resistance.

‌Core contentious issues restricting progress‌

‌Stablecoin yield restrictions‌: A compromise allows "transaction rewards" but bans "static holdings interest," with banks still pushing for tighter restrictions, while companies like Cbase oppose excessive limitations.

‌Anti-money laundering and illegal financing‌: Democrats want to strengthen regulatory provisions, while Republicans believe the current version is already balanced.

‌Trump family interests‌: The Trump family has profited over $1.4 billion from crypto projects, making ethics clauses a focal point of bipartisan debate. Some Republican lawmakers (like Tillis) also demand inclusion of this clause.

‌Overall probability judgment‌

‌Optimistic scenario (60%)‌: If a weakened version of the ethics clause (such as disclosure only, not prohibition) is reached within this week, the committee is highly likely to pass.

‌Pessimistic scenario (30%-40%)‌: The deadlock over ethics clauses persists, or stablecoin disputes flare up again, potentially delaying the bill until July, but the legislative window will then close.

‌Current institutional forecasts‌: TD Cowen and others estimate only a ‌33%‌ chance of passing the bill this year, but market expectations have risen to ‌50%-60%‌ after a May compromise (see result 12).

‌2. Potential impact on Bitcoin price‌

‌Short-term volatility depends on the committee vote outcome‌

‌If passed‌: It will send a clear regulatory signal, boost market confidence, and Bitcoin could quickly surge to ‌$85,000-$90,000‌ (referencing the 19% monthly increase to $80,000 during April’s bill progress).

‌If postponed‌: Uncertainty will increase, and Bitcoin may retrace to support levels of ‌$70,000-$75,000‌.

Long-term policy implementation effects‌

‌Bill passage this year‌: Establishes a compliant framework for U.S. crypto assets, attracting incremental capital from traditional financial institutions (e.g., Morgan Stanley has opened retail trading), and Bitcoin is expected to enter a ‌new institutional-driven bull market‌.

‌Bill failure‌: Regulatory vacuum persists, and the market relies on spot ETF capital flows, with Bitcoin likely to remain in a ‌high-volatility range‌ (Results 1 and 2 suggest the current market structure has shifted to "long-term holding," reducing the risk of a sharp crash).