#Gate广场五月交易分享 #美国4月CPI上涨3.8% Behind this data exceeding expectations are multiple factors: the impact of the Iran war shock is permeating the price system through energy, airfare, and transportation costs; memory chip costs have soared uncontrollably due to the ongoing "AI race"; additionally, the BLS has made a one-time correction to rental and housing data distorted by the government shutdown last October, which also caused technical disturbances in this period's data. Notably, despite inflation data heating up, the stock market has not shown a clear reaction, but the trend in the bond market may be subtly hinting at greater risks.

1 Energy shocks dominate the rise, with food and service sectors affected
The Iran war is the core driver behind this round of accelerated inflation. Gasoline prices have surged significantly for two consecutive months, becoming the main contributor to the overall CPI increase. According to Bloomberg data, from a short-term annualized perspective, the energy component's contribution is particularly prominent. The energy price increases caused by the war are transmitting through multiple channels to broader consumption areas. Airfare is one of the most typical examples: in April, airfare prices rose 2.8% month-over-month, due to airlines raising ticket and baggage fees amid soaring fuel costs and reducing capacity; hotel prices also rose 2.8% month-over-month, the largest monthly increase since 2024; overall service costs excluding energy and housing increased 0.5% month-over-month. Food prices have also risen noticeably. Economists point out that rising fertilizer prices are expected to further push up grocery bills, and high oil prices will also spread through increased transportation costs to more goods and services.

2 Housing data contains statistical distortions, core inflation remains elevated due to special factors
In April, core CPI rose, partly due to one-time statistical factors. Housing costs increased 0.6% month-over-month, the largest single-month increase in over two years, but this was largely distorted by residual effects from the government shutdown in 2025. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' rental data is based on samples collected every six months. Because data collection was disrupted during last year's government shutdown, the prices for relevant units remained unchanged in October last year. When these units were revalued in April this year, it captured about a year's worth of price increases in one go, making the rent increase for that month appear roughly twice the normal level. The overall price of core goods (excluding food and energy) remained flat, with new car prices declining as a hedge. In categories sensitive to tariffs, prices for clothing and toys grew narrower compared to March; used car prices remained flat. The market has been paying attention to whether retailers have fully passed on the costs of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration; current data do not show clear signs of concentrated transmission, but if energy prices stay high, the risk of a resurgence in goods inflation in the second half of the year cannot be ignored.

3 Doubts about inflation persistence, market reaction remains calm
Although April's data was generally hot, there are still disagreements about the sustainability of this inflation rebound. From recent oil price trends, as oil prices stabilize or even slightly decline, the impact of energy on CPI may have peaked. The market's current focus is on whether core inflation can remain moderate outside of energy shocks. In March, core CPI was below expectations, indicating that the war's impact had not yet broadly penetrated the core price system. Although April's core data exceeded expectations, some factors are one-time in nature, and investors tend to "look through" short-term energy-driven price pressures, focusing on the medium-term trend at the core level.