Bitcoin on-chain indicators turn positive for the first time in 7 months: Is this a replay of 2023, or a pump-and-dump from 2022?

Brothers, don’t rush to call a bull market yet.

I know you saw it— that damn “bull-bear cycle indicator” finally turned positive. After 7 months, since dropping from 126k, this is the first time.

Price rebounded from 60k to 81k, closing higher for three consecutive months. Bull Score also rose to 50. ETF net inflows reached $2.44 billion, and whales added 142 addresses in over 6 months. The data is right here, looking pretty convincing.

But do you remember March 2022? That same Bull Score also hit 50, and then what?

Guess what happened a week later. Price plummeted from 47k all the way down to 16k.

Same indicator, two different scripts.

Bullish side:

- The bull-bear cycle indicator turned positive for the first time in 7 months, and this isn’t some fake indicator; it measures the relationship between the P&L index and the 365-day moving average.

- Bull Score hitting 50 means entering the neutral zone for the first time since the bear market.

- ETF inflows in April were $2.44 billion, the strongest month since October last year.

- Whales—those holding over 1,000 bitcoins—added 142 addresses in the past 6 months.

- The RHODL ratio is now 4.5, the third-highest in history. Where were the previous two times? In 2015 and during the **bottom** of 2022. Both times led to bull markets afterward.

Bearish side:

- In March 2022, the Bull Score was also 50, but it only lasted about a week before cooling off. Everyone knows what happened next.

- During the last bear market, the indicator stayed in negative territory for 12 months before turning positive. This time, it only took 3 months. Do you call that quick recovery, or unstable foundations?

- StoneX’s forecast is straightforward: based on the four-year halving cycle, the bottom could be around 50k, expected in Q4. You’re now at 81k, still 38% above the bottom.

So the question is: do you trust the data, or do you trust history?

When prices fall, you think they will rise, and they slap you in the face; when you think they will fall, they shake you off.

That’s where we are now.

Indicators have turned positive, but after 2022’s turn, prices fell 70%. ETF is buying, but institutions will also cut losses. Whales are adding to their positions, but their buying cycles are measured in years—you can’t hold onto that.

The real painful truth is: on-chain data never lies, but those who interpret the data are always fooling themselves.

If you want to see a bull market, you look for evidence of a bull. If you want to see a bear market, you look for evidence of a bear. This indicator turning positive can be interpreted both ways.

So what should you do?

Give you an observation anchor, don’t guess the direction—look at the line.

$82k. The 200-day moving average.

Only when it stabilizes can we talk about a reversal. If it doesn’t, it’s just a replay of 2022.

Remember: “A positive indicator doesn’t mean the bull is back, it just means the emergency notice has been upgraded to a regular hospital ward.”

You’re still in the hospital. Don’t rush to celebrate discharge.

“The most panic phase may be over, but the most greedy phase has yet to come.” #Gate广场五月交易分享 #美国4月CPI上涨3.8% $BTC