#Gate广场五月交易分享 Increasing Volatility! Bitcoin once dropped below $80k, and a bullish signal has appeared. Why is there still a pullback?

The crypto market is experiencing intense fluctuations again, with Bitcoin (BTC) showing a "rollercoaster" pattern! On one side, CryptoQuant issued its first early bull market signal since March 2023, while on the other side, there is a short-term price correction and a dip below key levels, coupled with Bitcoin’s market share rising back to 58.5%. What exactly is happening in the current crypto market?

1. Real-time Market Update: Briefly fell below $80k, 24H volatility under pressure As of press time, Bitcoin’s short-term volatility has slightly rebounded, but signs of correction are evident. Core market data shows: Current price: $80,628.49 24H high: $81,615.67 24H low: $79,843.59 24H change: -2.06% (Data from the evening report at 00:46 on May 13, with a low of $79,953.15) 24H trading volume: $80,000
Looking at the trend, Bitcoin quickly retreated after reaching a high of $81,615.67, briefly breaking the $80,000 round number. It then slightly rebounded to the current level, with intense battle between bulls and bears in the short term. This correction happened right after CryptoQuant issued a bull market signal the day before, creating a stark contrast between the "bullish signal and short-term pullback."

2. Key News Analysis: Bull market signals emerge, market share rebounds, there’s a hidden story behind the correction
1 CryptoQuant’s Major Signal: First time entering early bull territory since March 2023 According to CoinDesk, CryptoQuant released a key signal on May 12, indicating its market cycle indicator officially entered a bullish zone. This is the first time since March 2023 that Bitcoin has been placed in early bull territory, suggesting the crypto market may have exited the bear phase. This indicator is not based on a single dimension but combines CryptoQuant’s profit and loss index, which includes three core on-chain metrics: MVRV ratio (measuring market valuation by comparing market value and realized value to assess over- or under-valuation), NUPL (unrealized profit and loss ratio), and SOPR ratio of long-term versus short-term holders (measuring holder profitability or loss).
CryptoQuant’s research director Julio Moreno clearly states that this shift "usually indicates that the worst phase of correction has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover." Notably, when the bull market signal flips, Bitcoin’s price has already exceeded $80,000, rebounding about 35% from the February low of $60,000. The rebound momentum is clear. Additionally, continuous inflows of institutional funds support the bull case—April saw ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products reaching $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly institutional inflow since October 2025, reflecting long-term confidence in Bitcoin. However, CryptoQuant emphasizes that the validity of the bull signal still needs confirmation: Bitcoin must break through the $82,000 resistance level to officially confirm the early bull pattern. Otherwise, it may still face consolidation. This is one of the main reasons for the current short-term correction—market pressure at the $82,000 resistance level and profit-taking trigger the pullback.

2. Bitcoin market share rises to 58.5%, funds concentrate in leading assets Another key news is that Bitcoin’s market dominance has rebounded from around 55% to 58.5%. This change reveals the current flow of funds within the crypto market.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s market share fluctuations often reflect capital rotation: when dominance rises, it usually coincides with market consolidation, during which Bitcoin outperforms altcoins, and funds flow back from altcoins to Bitcoin.
Looking back, Bitcoin’s market share peaked at 62-63% in mid-2025, then fell back to around 54% by late 2025. The recent rebound to 58.5% indicates funds are once again concentrating in the leading asset, and market risk appetite has decreased. Analysts further point out that the relationship between market share and price is crucial: if Bitcoin’s price stagnates at current levels and market share declines, it could signal rotation into higher-beta assets (altcoins). Conversely, if both price and market share continue to rise together, it indicates sustained capital concentration in Bitcoin, further solidifying its dominant position. Currently, the rebound in market share and the price correction form a brief divergence; future focus should be on their combined movement.

3. Market Evening Report Confirmation: Brief dip below $80,000, short-term pressure evident According to the latest market evening report released by CoinDesk at 00:46 on May 13, data from XBIT Wallet shows Bitcoin once dropped to $79,953.15, breaking the $80,000 round number. The 24H decline was 2.06%, with a trading volume of $80,000.
As a key infrastructure for crypto trading, XBIT Wallet not only provides market data monitoring but also has an integrated intelligent risk control system that tracks market fluctuations in real time. The recent dip below $80,000 is seen as a signal of short-term profit-taking. Given the current environment, the main reason for the correction is that Bitcoin approached the $82,000 resistance level without sustained buying support. Early profit-taking by traders led to price pressure. Additionally, doubts about the validity of the bull market signal persist, causing some investors to stay on the sidelines, further amplifying short-term volatility.

3. Dissecting the Logic of Price Movements: Short-term correction vs. long-term bull market, the core behind the contradiction
The core contradiction in the current market is between "short-term correction pressure" and "long-term bull signals." Combining institutional views and market data, we can clarify the underlying logic:
From a long-term perspective, the appearance of bull signals, ongoing institutional inflows, and rising market share all point to a positive outlook for the crypto market. CryptoQuant’s bull market indicator suggests the market structure is beginning to recover, and the worst phase of correction has passed. April’s ETF inflows hit a nearly 7-month high, indicating sustained institutional demand for Bitcoin. The market share rebound to 58.5% also reflects recognition of Bitcoin as the leading asset, consistent with the trend of steadily increasing Bitcoin market share since 2023, reinforcing its core position in the crypto space.
In the short term, corrections are normal market adjustments.
On one hand, Bitcoin has rebounded about 35% from its February lows, accumulating profit-taking pressure. Before reaching the $82,000 resistance, profit-taking is inevitable.
On the other hand, the bull market signal’s validity has yet to be confirmed; the market needs time to digest sentiment, and short-term consolidation is highly likely. Additionally, RYOEX institutional analysts suggest Bitcoin may fluctuate between $78,000 and $85,000 in the near term, with direction more likely driven by institutional trading behavior. The current correction is part of this range-bound movement.

4. Future Trend Predictions: Support in the short term, resistance in the medium term, bull market in the long term
Based on the current market structure, bull signals, and institutional insights, a rational outlook on Bitcoin’s future trend from short, medium, and long-term perspectives:
1. Short-term (1-3 days): Consolidation, testing $80,000 support In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to continue consolidating, primarily testing the support at $80,000. If it holds, and trading volume gradually increases, a slight rebound toward $81,500–$82,000 could occur. If it breaks below $80,000 without quick recovery, it may further decline to around $79,500–$79,800 (near the 24H low), but the correction should be limited—since the bull market signals are present, market panic is relatively controlled, and long-term holders and miners’ positions remain stable, with no significant deterioration in market structure.
2. Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Key focus on breaking the $82,000 resistance The main factor for the medium-term trend is whether Bitcoin can break through the $82,000 resistance—this is critical for confirming the validity of CryptoQuant’s early bull signal. According to RYOEX analysts, market makers hold short gamma positions near $82,000. If the price successfully breaks this resistance, it could trigger hedge buying, further pushing the price higher, with potential targets around $85,200. If it fails to break through, Bitcoin may remain in a $80,000–$82,000 range, possibly experiencing a secondary correction, but with limited downside—likely not falling below $76,000. The trend of market share will also influence the medium-term direction: if price and market share move together upward, it indicates sustained capital concentration in Bitcoin, supporting higher prices; if market share declines, funds may rotate into altcoins, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
3. Long-term (1-6 months): Bull market outlook with caution for phase corrections If Bitcoin successfully breaks above $82,000 and confirms CryptoQuant’s early bull signal, a new bull cycle could begin. Historical data shows Bitcoin’s market share has steadily increased since 2023, averaging 59.3% in 2025, close to the 12-year average of 62.5%, indicating its dominant position remains strong. Coupled with ongoing institutional inflows and increasing spot ETF support, a long-term bull market is promising. However, investors should remain cautious: bull markets are not always smooth, and phase corrections may occur. CryptoQuant’s signal only indicates that “the worst correction phase has passed,” not that short-term pullbacks are impossible. Macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory changes could also impact the market. Rational investing and avoiding chasing highs blindly are advised.

All data and analysis in this article are sourced from CoinDesk, XBIT Wallet, CryptoQuant, RYOEX, and other public sources and do not constitute investment advice.