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Yesterday's Gold Market Analysis

1. Market Trend Summary

As of May 12, 2026, 21:58, London Gold is quoted at $4,688 per ounce, with intraday rally followed by a pullback, high-level oscillation leaning weaker, short-term technical correction within a bullish trend. Tonight's key focus is on the US April CPI data.

Core Drivers:
Bullish: Middle East geopolitical tensions (US-Iran ceasefire on the brink), ongoing global central bank gold purchases, safe-haven demand support.
Bearish: Slight rebound of the US dollar, profit-taking at high levels, awaiting CPI data (20:30), expected year-over-year 3.7%–3.8%.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

Daily Level:
Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages (MA5/10) are in a bullish alignment, with MA5 support around 4700–4715, which was briefly broken today but not effectively reclaimed.

Pattern: Yesterday's long lower shadow large bullish candle (bottomed at 4648 and rebounded), today’s pullback shows high-level consolidation, the bullish trend remains intact but short-term momentum weakens.
Indicators: MACD shows a bullish crossover at low levels, with moderate increasing red bars; KDJ is flat at high levels, indicating a short-term correction needed.
4-Hour Level:
Bollinger Bands: After narrowing, they are trending downward, with price breaking below the midline (4708), indicating short-term weakness.
Moving Averages: Bullish alignment but with a short-term turn, MA30 support around 4690.
Momentum: RSI≈56 (neutral to slightly strong), ADX≈27 (trend exists but not strong), no obvious overbought or oversold signals.
1-Hour Level:
Broken the head-and-shoulders top pattern, moving averages diverging in a bearish manner, rebound hindered, short-term bears favored, watch for divergence correction.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance Levels (from top to bottom):

4770–4780: Intraday high, strong resistance

4735–4750: Recent oscillation high, selling pressure concentrated

4700–4715: MA5/10, the dividing line between bulls and bears

Support Levels (from bottom to top):
4680–4690: Short-term support, near today’s low

4648–4650: Yesterday’s low, strong support (bulls’ lifeline)

4600–4620: Secondary strong support, previous consolidation core zone

4. Market Outlook

Short-term (1–3 days):
US April CPI: ≥3.8%, persistent inflation, delaying rate cut expectations, gold prices may dip to 4600–4550;

Technical view: 4700 is the bull-bear dividing line, holding above suggests oscillation leaning bullish, losing it may lead to a decline toward 4650–4600.
Medium-term (1–3 months):

Bullish trend remains intact: global central banks continue to buy gold (Q1 net purchase of 244 tons, +17% MoM), Middle East geopolitical risks persist, institutions remain bullish (Goldman Sachs target 5200, JPMorgan 6000+).

Key Range: 4650 as the medium-term bottom, breaking above 4825 opens upward space.