I just noticed an interesting point in the market recently. If you're considering whether to buy Bitcoin or invest in MicroStrategy, perhaps you should listen to Adam Back from Blockstream's perspective.

What is Mstr? Simply put, MicroStrategy is a software company founded by Michael Saylor — a passionate Bitcoin investor. What makes it different is that the company holds a huge amount of Bitcoin, currently about 189,150 BTC. With Bitcoin's current price at $80,480, this asset is worth billions of dollars.

Adam Back recently shared an interesting analysis on X. He believes MSTR is trading at a very attractive price relative to the amount of Bitcoin the company holds. Back estimates the company's actual software business value at around $2 billion. Adding in the value of the Bitcoin holdings, he concludes that a reasonable price for MSTR should be around $625–$685 per share.

Interestingly, this stock has experienced a rollercoaster ride. From the start to the end of 2023, MSTR rose from $329 to $685 — far surpassing Bitcoin's growth during the same period. But when Bitcoin ETF approvals and launches officially happened, MSTR was heavily sold off. The stock dropped to $482 in mid-January, a 30% decline from its peak.

By the way, other crypto-related stocks also faced the same fate. Coinbase fell 15%, and Cleanspark even dropped 33%. It seems that when Bitcoin ETFs actually launch, investors no longer need to use MSTR as an "indirect Bitcoin fund."

However, some point out that MSTR still has $2 billion in debt to consider. Back admits this, but argues that this debt isn't new and will "increase" over time. Analysts' calculations show that even if Bitcoin rises to $200,000, MSTR could still perform worse than pure Bitcoin or even worse than newer, more leveraged Bitcoin ETFs.

Overall, MicroStrategy remains a way to participate in the Bitcoin story, but is it the best way? Perhaps the answer depends on your strategy and the risk you're willing to accept.