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U.S. inflation soars, Wall Street flips overnight, betting on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
3.8%——U.S. April CPI year-over-year increase, hitting the highest level since May 2023, not only exceeding market expectations of 3.7%, but also significantly accelerating from 3.3% in March.
After the data was released, the futures market’s pricing for rate cuts in 2026 essentially dropped to zero, with the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year soaring from 10% to 30%. Zero rate cuts in 2026 have now become the baseline.
The rate cut dream is shattered. The possibility of a rate hike, for the first time, officially appears on the table.
What exactly is hidden in this CPI report that caused Wall Street to collectively adjust its outlook after reviewing it?