Middle East "Shadow War" Escalates: After the UAE, Saudi Arabia is also reported to have secretly attacked Iran

After reports of secret strikes against Iran in the UAE, the Gulf countries’ “shadow war” against Iran has further surfaced.

On Tuesday, December 12, Eastern Time, media citing multiple Western and Iranian officials reported that Saudi Arabia launched several undisclosed airstrikes inside Iran in March this year, as a retaliation for previous attacks by Iran on Saudi territory. This is the earliest known instance of Gulf Arab states directly conducting military strikes on Iranian territory during this round of US-Iran conflict, marking a significant shift in the long-standing reliance of the Middle East on the US security umbrella.

According to the aforementioned media, the background of this conflict is that after the US and Israel jointly targeted Iran on February 28, the Iranian government launched large-scale retaliatory actions against Gulf states. Iran subsequently carried out missile and drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and US bases in the Gulf, and at one point threatened the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The media quoted sources as saying that faced with domestic security pressures, Saudi Arabia ultimately decided to take a “limited but direct” military response. Although the Saudi government continued diplomatic contacts with Tehran afterward, attempting to prevent full-scale war, its secret airstrikes indicate that Gulf countries are no longer just behind-the-scenes supporters but are beginning to act directly.

Gulf States Collective “Turning to Hardline”

Before the news of Saudi strikes on Iran was exposed, US media revealed on Monday that the UAE also secretly carried out military strikes against Iran, including an attack in early April on an oil refinery on Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf. The report stated that the attack caused a large fire at the refinery and led to several months of partial production shutdown.

Other media later confirmed the relevant information but said it could not be independently verified. The US media mentioned that the UAE had previously suffered numerous missile and drone attacks from Iran, becoming one of Iran’s key targets during the conflict. As Iran’s air defense system was weakened after US and Israeli strikes, Abu Dhabi began to more actively use its F-16 and Mirage fighters to conduct cross-border operations.

British media pointed out that, besides the UAE, Kuwait also detained individuals suspected of being members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicating that the entire Gulf Arab bloc is strengthening its security countermeasures against Iran.

Analysts believe this signals the formation of a new regional security landscape:

• Gulf countries are no longer fully reliant on direct US military intervention;
• Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others are beginning to establish “autonomous deterrence”;
• The long-standing proxy conflicts between Iran and Gulf states are gradually evolving into direct military confrontation.

“Striking While Talking”: Saudi Attempts to Avoid Full-Scale War

Notably, although Saudi Arabia was reported to have launched airstrikes, Reuters stated that Riyadh is actually pursuing a “dual-track” strategy of “military retaliation + diplomatic de-escalation.”

The report said that after launching the strikes, Saudi Arabia continued to communicate with Iran and attempted to push for a ceasefire. As attacks by Iran on Saudi territory decreased in early April, the two sides ultimately reached a de facto ceasefire, and the US and Iran subsequently agreed on a ceasefire arrangement on April 7.

Saudi former intelligence chief Turki al-Faisal stated that Saudi Arabia’s goal was not to escalate the conflict but to “protect its people and economic security.”

However, even after the formal ceasefire, Iran-backed Iraqi militias continued sporadic attacks on Saudi and Gulf targets, indicating that the Middle East situation remains far from stable.

Oil Markets and Financial Markets Reassess “Gulf War Risks”

As more Gulf countries are exposed to involvement in military actions against Iran, market concerns over Middle Eastern energy supply risks have reignited.

On Tuesday, media reports indicated that due to growing fears that the Iran conflict will be difficult to resolve in the short term, major Gulf stock markets declined sharply, while international benchmark Brent crude oil futures surged over 3%, breaking $107.

Analysts pointed out that compared to the previous bilateral “Iran-US” confrontation, the biggest change now is:

Gulf oil-producing countries are increasingly involved in the conflict themselves.

This means that if a ceasefire breaks down, markets will have to simultaneously price in: the shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz; the risk of attacks on Saudi and UAE energy facilities; the risk of direct military escalation in the Gulf; and disruptions to OPEC’s core capacity.

For the global energy market, this could mean that Middle Eastern geopolitical risk premiums are entering a new, more prolonged phase.

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