I just realized there’s a concept that many traders still don’t fully understand—token unlock. It may sound simple, but it can trigger extremely strong price fluctuations in the market.

Token unlock is the process of releasing tokens that were locked after the project goes live. Instead of all tokens being issued at once, projects design a phased release plan—called a vesting schedule. These tokens can belong to the development team, venture investors, advisors, or the community. Initially, locking tokens is meant to control supply and prevent those “cá mập” dumping immediately.

So why does token unlock affect price so powerfully? Simply because it changes supply and demand. When a large amount of tokens is released, early investors who have made big profits will want to take profits. If there isn’t enough buying pressure to absorb it, the price can drop freely.

There are three main factors I always keep an eye on. First is market sentiment—investors often sell before the unlock happens because they worry about sell-offs. Second is the amount of tokens being unlocked compared with the total circulating supply—if it’s too large, the impact can be devastating. Third is who receives the tokens—if they end up in the hands of the team or early investors, selling to lock in profits is almost certain.

Let me share a few real examples. With the TRUMP coin, last April, an unlock of 40 million tokens—about 20% of the circulating supply—caused concern. However, the price later recovered strongly thanks to an accompanying event. Right now, TRUMP is at $2.34, much lower than back then. This shows that token unlock doesn’t always lead to a collapse—it depends on the market context.

Looking at Aptos (APT), it’s completely different. All three APT unlocks follow a similar pattern: the price rises before the unlock, hits a peak at the time of the unlocking, and then plunges afterward. That’s the typical scenario when there’s no positive news to support it. Currently, APT is at $1.08, down 4.61% over the past 24 hours.

The best way to avoid surprises is to track the unlock schedule in advance. A few tools I often use: Tokenomist provides details for each unlock round, DeFiLlama compiles projects with upcoming vesting, and of course, follow the project itself on X, Discord, or Medium.

But don’t rush to conclude that every token unlock is a sell signal. I’ve seen many people lump them all together. In reality, you need to analyze more carefully—who will receive the tokens, whether they have incentives to sell, and whether there’s any accompanying news. Token unlock can be an opportunity if you know how to read the market. By combining unlock-schedule tracking with technical analysis and news, you’ll make smarter investment decisions. Wishing you successful trading!