Iran Conflict | Trump Administration expects oil production cuts to peak in May

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the scale of crude oil outages related to the Iran war will peak in May at approximately 10.8 million barrels per day.

In its Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA states that due to factors such as U.S. sanctions, Iran will have to cut back on oil production. Even after the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, production and trade patterns are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026 or early 2027.

If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into late June, oil prices could be $20 per barrel higher than current assumptions; the current expectation is that the strait will reopen by late May.

The EIA states that global oil inventories are expected to decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, which will keep Brent crude oil prices at around $106 per barrel in May and June.

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts with the U.S. and Israel has caused turbulence in the global energy markets, with millions of barrels of Middle Eastern energy exports stranded daily, intensifying concerns over global fuel shortages. In the U.S., prices for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels have risen to multi-year highs.

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