Delphi Digital analyzes margin changes in the Bitcoin financing model strategy; STRC becomes a key expansion engine, but risks rise in sync

Odaily Planet Daily News: Crypto research firm Delphi Digital has released its latest report, “How Far Can Saylor Stretch It,” which provides a systematic analysis of Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) capital expansion mechanism under its financing structure. The report indicates that its funding setup is shifting from a “low-cost accumulation” phase to a “diminishing marginal efficiency” stage.

The report shows that within the current Bitcoin-centered asset accumulation framework, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy’s ongoing BTC purchases. In the early period, a positive loop of “issuance leading to accumulation” was achieved by relying on a significant premium in MSTR’s share price (with mNAV far exceeding BTC’s net value). However, as valuation declined back to about 1.24x EV-based mNAV, the BTC-per-share thickening effect from issuing common stock has nearly reached break-even.

At the same time, while convertible bond instruments played an important role in historical stages, they have already accumulated about $8.2 billion in principal and face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term sustainability of the financing structure under strain.

STRC supports Strategy by offering income-oriented investors roughly 11.5% annualized monthly dividends, providing a steady source of funding to maintain the BTC purchasing pace. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations, meaning that each financing round both increases BTC assets and simultaneously accumulates future dividend burdens.

The report highlights key risk scenarios: if the BTC price moves sideways and the MSTR premium cannot recover, the “STRC financing-to-buy-coins gain” may be gradually offset by “common stock dilution and dividend obligations.” Although the company’s approximately $2.25 billion cash reserves can cover the roughly $1 billion redemption pressure in 2027, the larger-scale debt and dividend structure in 2028 still needs to be addressed.

In addition, STRC’s current authorized issuance limit of about $28.3 billion is a critical constraint node. Once the cap is reached, the ability to purchase additional BTC may slow down, but existing dividend obligations will continue to persist, thereby changing the overall BTC-per-share growth trajectory.