Tuesday, May 12, 2026 Review: Superweight Consolidation, Life or Death

When you feel there is no value for money, exit early, especially when market sentiment is unified! [Taoguba]

** ——jl Cabbage Copycat**
Since yesterday, the market has been quite chaotic; to be more precise, after April 29th, this round of resonance has been vibrating together with the lower limit, which is the robot endpoints! Starting April 30th, Tibet Everest stagnated, lithium mines led the decline! Entering adjustment, if you look at the chart to decide whether to exit, I estimate you are definitely being passive, but if you measure by value for money, whether there is value here, that’s more active!

When thinking about the market here, you need to start from the perspective of the big main force. Before the market opens, first stabilize your mindset. Whether it rises or falls here, taking a couple of days to stay put is not illegal, because in the past four days, the profit margins given were substantial. Now, the urgent ones are those who missed out, and those who poorly control their positions. The former was discussed in yesterday’s review: the market actually rose in volume and price, and the fear is being too clever. Now it’s about who can hold on and who gets it right! The latter was mentioned early on: position control must be good, otherwise one stock can affect the entire layout! — Mindset and Position Management!

Before the holiday
April 29th: 3,973 stocks up, 1,403 stocks down, market turnover 2.59T, market-wide rise, lithium mine peak
April 30th: 2,878 stocks up, 2,461 stocks down, market turnover 2.74T, market dominated by — Sci-Tech Innovation
After the holiday
May 6th: 3,889 stocks up, 1,481 stocks down, market turnover 3.23T, market dominated by — balanced gains and losses
May 7th: 3,520 stocks up, 1,832 stocks down, market turnover 3.14T, overseas chains returning, upstream leading the rise
May 8th: 3,637 stocks up, 1,728 stocks down, market turnover 3.54T, robot first half: mid-tier retreat
Business aviation enters the second half, sentiment plunges
May 11th: 3,121 stocks up, 2,239 stocks down, market turnover 3.27T, morning domestic substitution, afternoon overseas, real estate and others active!

May 12th: 1,378 stocks up, 4,048 stocks down, market turnover 295.7B, volume shrank by 2.957 billion, the market is led by overseas chain super weights, like Yi Zhongtian and these varieties. Even with CPO so strong, and peripheral optical communications soaring, our optical communications are just rallying then falling back. Now there’s a hint of super weights grouping, which is a style—based on sufficient volume! — Confirm market style — Style expansion and opportunity exploration!

Last night, I was quite worried about the market. Everyone is worried about missing out, which is normal, and afraid of being trapped if they don’t sell. Everyone has this in their mind. But if you analyze the underlying logic clearly, what are you afraid of? Because the past four days have all been rising, so you’re afraid, but it’s not a problem with the market itself, I think. It’s just a matter of a correction size, not a problem with the market. Then let it adjust. This involves two points: first, the current market needs adjustment, so you need to observe and be prepared to weaken the weak and hold the strong; second, since adjustment is needed, if your stock selection logic was correct from the start and there was no excessive rise, you don’t need to move. Moving means two things: buying and selling. No need to rush to sell, nor to buy. In my comment area, I see many people very anxious—if even in the worst case, buying at the close today is fine. There’s really no need to gamble during the trading day! Objectively, the most important thing now is that we are in a stage controlled by big main forces!

Currently, institutional weights are the foundation. Under the influence of intra-day institutional weights, sentiment stocks perform. It was okay at first, but as time lengthens and prices rise, many who entered halfway forget the essence. The platform is built by institutional weights. Those who tell stories, cross over, or ride concepts must pay attention to the platform’s capacity. Most collapse before the platform collapses, and the strongest stocks are the last to dip. Currently, the market is basically waiting for this process, for example, computing power first drops! — Pre-market preparation

Who leads the market is responsible. On yesterday’s market, from 9:37 to 9:58, Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a plunge because it is basically tied to the ChiNext index. After the correction on April 27th (the last to fall), it stabilized with the market on April 29th, then moved near the five-day moving average. On April 30th, resonance with the lower limit caused rapid rotation and chaos, experiencing AI chips, robots, commercial aerospace, etc., until May 7th, when combined with Xinyi Sheng, it regained market dominance! The small moves at the open yesterday by Zhongji Xuchuang correspond to two ideas:

First: The market itself needs adjustment. Those who couldn’t hold during Zhongji Xuchuang’s decline! Because yesterday’s index pulled back, the pullback wasn’t necessarily from the stock itself but from the index’s followers. For example, computing power, taking Xiechuang Data as an example, is borrowing the index’s momentum. If today’s index can’t continue rising, it’s basically the end of the road, and yesterday’s index was responding to external factors, like storage chips rising. The market opened lower in Korea, so these passive logic points are all downward. Whether it can recover is unclear!

Second: Yesterday, Zhongji Xuchuang made a false breakout at the open, then the stock price pulled back, including Xinyi Sheng, which nearly lost five points but still managed to turn red. The point was, since it played this move, today’s high open and rebound are still playable. Intraday, Yi Zhongtian was rising, with the strong remaining strong, and PCB resting!

Then, look at several weights together. On May 7th, Zhongji Xuchuang regained dominance, while CATL lost it. Lithium batteries kept falling, which is the best structure. If CPO doesn’t top out in the short term, it’s hard to judge whether new energy has bottomed. This isn’t an absolute relationship. Even if Zhongji Xuchuang peaks, the stocks that come out might be Sunshine Power or photovoltaic silicon materials, not necessarily lithium mines. Don’t be subjective—measure value for money. So, for those asking me about lithium stocks at the close today when Zhongji Xuchuang is bullish, I don’t have confidence! Going forward, my world is only about value for money. As for the word “opportunity,” I try to use it sparingly!

So far, Zhongji Xuchuang has had two big bullish days. The following are the possible scenarios:
First: The varieties led by CPO will surge and then fall back tomorrow.
Second: Switch to other tech lines, like semiconductors, PCB, and other core grouping stocks.
Third: Directly enter correction.
It’s impossible to predict subjectively here; technical analysis is more reliable than guessing the main force. It’s a state deliberately guided by the main force. So, in the first half of tomorrow, there will be many minute movements in the index! Just keep an eye on Xinyi Sheng and Zhongji Xuchuang. Whether it opens high or low depends on the external environment. Whether there’s a quick drop in the first hour depends on these two. If they hold steady, the index won’t have big problems, and the market will continue to look for grouping in tech!

When the bidding begins, it’s basically judged that today will adjust. But under the macro idea that the market needs adjustment, there’s no fear. Why judge it needs adjustment? Just pick a few stocks and look at the last second of bidding, especially hardware stocks like Shenghong Technology—just hit the sell button. This is based on the Hong Kong market opening 4 points higher; it’s not surprising to pull back. Who has this ability? Different sectors, different stocks, all pressed down by the big main force.

The opening first attacked a wave of robots. Zhongda Lide opened high in the morning. Robots are the stocks active last Friday. It looks like the goods haven’t been sold out yet, but today’s move is due to Musk’s influence, a news stimulus. The continuation is questionable, and since the bidding identified the main force’s adjustment, intraday news stimuli or other themes should be avoided. Wait until after the market drops or at the close.

At 9:31, Haio Co., Ltd. surged to limit up, with liquid cooling and nuclear power. The reaction to liquid cooling today is not big; at this stage, nuclear power is more appropriate.

At 9:32, Zhonghui Technology surged to limit up, with upstream materials like indium phosphide. Yunnan Geology also approached the limit up near the close. Today, computing power mostly adjusted, including commercial aerospace.

At 9:34, Datang Power surged to limit up, a trillion-cap stock with a T-shaped board. The calculation of electrical synergy—honestly, I don’t want to add that word; electricity is electricity! Later, Shao Neng shares also hit the limit up. At 9:40, solar energy surged and then hit the limit up. Today’s market pattern is basically set—an adjustment. The intraday adjustment looks gentle.

These power stations and electricity are not moved by one person; they move together. The outbound power sector is also active. Yesterday, China Xidian’s support was quite strong. This is also a recent market play. When the index rises, stocks are riding the index’s volume, everyone is stacking positions. So, the details of observation are high—finding details among the crowd. For example, yesterday, China Xidian’s support was strong, representing outbound power, which is counter to the index. So, projecting today’s market or future two days based on yesterday’s view is not good because the timing is uncertain. Just combine with value for money to lock in. Today, Tongda Co., Ltd., Hanlan Co., Ltd., Solar Cable, even Tongguang Cable all hit the limit up. Not long after opening, you see the attitude of the bidding institutions, the cables, the solar energy, Huadian Liaoning, Great Wall Securities—do you still want to open positions today? I think not. So, some brothers ask if they can add positions. Isn’t it about whether to run or not?

This wave of rise continued until 10:29, when Dalian Thermal Power hit the limit up, then funds moved to healthcare in the afternoon. The healthcare stocks were driven by news, like Jin Pharmaceutical, which probably was identified by quantitative methods for a board. If there’s no major positive news or stimuli, Jin Pharmaceutical can’t turn weak into strong in bidding; it will fall at the open.

At 11:22, China Great Wall and Hongban Technology both broke the limit. At this point, Yi Zhongtian didn’t give much negative feedback; only a small pullback in the index, and sentiment was fragile, laying the groundwork for limited opportunities in the afternoon.

At 13:50, Chengfei Integration surged to limit up. The entire batch completed last year is lifting, like Inner Mongolia First Machinery, Northern Long Dragon, Great Wall Military Industry, etc. I don’t know why, but the quantitative push is definitely not a good sign!

At 14:07, Baoding Technology advanced to the fourth board, in copper foil. The upstream of PCB today shows signs of weakness—whether it’s electronic cloth, resin, or electronic cloth again, there are signs of baiting at the close, like Copper Crown Copper Foil, Filihua, etc. Tomorrow’s opening in the first half hour must not sustain above water; there are conflicting demands!

Until the end of the day, most of the market was arbitraging, with little desire for attack. Currently, the market only has two paths: either grouping or adjustment. Intraday, sentiment is very fragile. For individuals, after yesterday’s reduction, just keep an eye on it. No holdings of concept stocks or those with large gains, like Tongding Interconnection, are characteristic of accelerated sentiment and often signals of short-term exhaustion. It can also serve as a reference indicator. Tomorrow, if your stocks don’t break through or the market shows no support, it should continue to reduce positions, then buy the dip after the main force comes down. At least, many things will be close to bottom after a further decline!

Recently, the market atmosphere has been very active, with quantitative manipulation techniques reappearing to boost sentiment. The current atmosphere is actually very good. I don’t know why this happened. Also, many 20CM stocks yesterday—upon opening, only Changchuan Technology had quality, and today it’s still not premium, which easily stirs retail traders’ desire! In the coming days, the biggest test for retail investors will be two things: one, the market will grind here, testing patience; as long as the main force doesn’t act, retail will tend to step on the wrong rhythm. The second is position management. How many are still fully loaded? Today’s scene shows it clearly: quick gains, quick retracements! This round, it’s all about opportunities. The main force is here, don’t be caught without positions to buy the dip!

When anxious, don’t listen to external voices. When afraid of missing out, ask yourself what your goal is. Looking at this year, since January, most people probably already achieved their annual target. When asked, they said 10% or 20% for the year was enough. When the index rose, they started comparing, forgetting their original intention. They began calculating if they first bought overseas chains, then domestic, how seamless the connection would be. Those with such ideas probably buy lottery tickets often! I think the biggest role of the internet is to promote knowledge equality, not to stir up desires! The technical side is now basically popularized; the Dao side is inward seeking. Look at the fans in my comment area—how stable their emotions are!

I believe in China’s future for the next ten years. Even if CPO collapses, other varieties will emerge. When they do, if your mindset doesn’t improve, you’ll still chase highs and sell lows. Money is abundant, but whether you can take it depends on your own desire!

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