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Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon. Non-farm payroll data looks pretty good, but wage growth has remained lukewarm—how should we interpret this contradiction? Blackstone Group's portfolio manager Rosenberg recently pointed out this trade-off issue.
His core view is quite straightforward: this report doesn't signal any significant changes. Rosenberg believes the Federal Reserve should continue to maintain the status quo and not rush into major adjustments. It sounds like the market has already fully digested this data.
But Rosenberg's more intriguing observation lies in a deeper logic. He points out that current macroeconomic data is increasingly dominated by the theme of AI. This isn't just hype around the AI concept; real economic structures are changing.
Specifically, the drivers behind GDP and expenditure data have quietly shifted. In the past, we could understand economic trends by looking at consumption data, but now? Capital expenditure is the real protagonist. Companies are investing heavily in AI-related infrastructure, far surpassing growth on the consumer side. The performance of financial markets also confirms this, with significant gains driven more by AI-related assets and opportunities.
Rosenberg's judgment is worth pondering. It indicates that whether in macro data or market trends, AI has become a key variable in understanding the current economic cycle.