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Late at night, all markets are falling! The Federal Reserve suddenly announces big news!
U.S. inflation has exploded! U.S. stocks and gold all plunge together, rate cuts seem completely unlikely?
U.S. April CPI year-over-year rose 3.8%, not only exceeding expectations but also hitting a new high since May 2023! Core CPI also outperformed market forecasts.
Once the data was released, the three major U.S. stock indices all opened lower, with the Nasdaq down nearly 1%.
Chip stocks suffered a bloodbath, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.8%, Qualcomm fell nearly 7%, Intel and Micron dropped over 3%.
Optical communication and storage concept stocks also collectively tumbled. European markets also dove, with Germany, France, Italy, and Spain all falling more than 1%.
Gold and silver also declined, with spot gold dropping over 1%.
Who is really driving inflation? Middle East conflicts pushed oil prices higher, gasoline surged 28% year-over-year, fuel oil up over 54%.
Worse still, oil prices are spreading through the economy via airline tickets, hotels, and transportation costs.
The market’s biggest concern has changed: now no one expects rate cuts.
CME data shows a 97.6% probability of holding interest rates steady in June, and no rate cuts for the rest of the year have become the mainstream expectation.
Some analysts even openly say: “The next move by the Federal Reserve should be a rate hike, not a cut.”
But the obstacle to rate hikes is also very real—Trump’s nominee for the new Fed chair, Waller, is about to take office.
Trump has been calling for rate cuts every day, but economists warn Waller will face an “impossible task”: fighting inflation while dealing with presidential pressure.
Waller himself has not made any commitments, saying he has not promised anything.
In summary: inflation can’t be contained, rate cuts are out of sight, and the market is already kneeling in respect.
The next Federal Reserve meeting is in June; we’ll see how Waller plays his hand then. #Gate广场五月交易分享