TACO and NACHO transactions coexist; the likelihood that domestic central banks will cut reserve requirements and interest rates in the short term is low; overseas domestic computing power and lithium battery growth—0512 macro dewatering

The current market presents a coexistence of TACO and NACHO trading patterns, with ongoing uncertainties in Middle Eastern geopolitics, energy prices, and inflation trajectories, while the main themes of artificial intelligence and corporate earnings expectations provide support. Major asset performance remains primarily driven by energy prices, interest rates stay at high levels with oscillations, and precious metals perform relatively better.

Domestic financial conditions marginally tightened in the first quarter but remain relatively loose. The central bank believes that global economic growth momentum is weak, supply shocks and imported inflation pressures are emerging, but there is confidence in the domestic economy, with inflation gradually rising. Regarding cyclical policies, the central bank has not explicitly mentioned reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions, and the short-term probability is low.

The market has three major themes with relatively high prosperity. In terms of overseas computing power, large model manufacturers are accelerating investments in data centers and power resources. For domestic computing power, investment logic has entered the phase of product, order, and ecosystem validation. Regarding lithium, domestic large storage, overseas energy storage, and AI data center supporting demand are jointly driving orders.