#Gate广场五月交易分享 Does US CPI data meet expectations? What is the future trajectory of Bitcoin prices?

Tonight's US CPI data finally released: the final result is "as expected," and Bitcoin prices have already priced it in!
1. CPI release, why is the market "calm" despite the news?
April CPI data is out: month-on-month 0.6%, year-on-year 3.7%, core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.7%. Fully in line with expectations.
Inflation rebounded, reaching a nearly 3-year high. But Bitcoin's price didn't crash nor take off, still oscillating slightly above 80k, building momentum.
Why is it so uneventful?
Because this data was already priced in. Oil prices have been above $100 for two months, and CPI rebound was obvious. The current question is: now that the data is out, what will happen to Bitcoin's price next?
 2. CPI data breakdown: expected "hot" but not shocking
✅ Overall CPI month-on-month 0.6%, year-on-year 3.7% (highest since 2023);
✅ Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.7%;
✅ Driving factors: energy prices (oil at high levels) are the main cause, core inflation remains controllable;
✅ Conclusion: in line with expectations → not bullish, not bearish, a "neutral landing."
3. Market situation: volume contraction and sideways trading, structural energy accumulation for a breakout
Prices are consolidating narrowly between 80,500 and 82,500. On May 1, daily volume was 1.34 million BTC; on May 11, only 2,957 BTC, a contraction of over 99%, showing a clear divergence between volume and price. Volume has shrunk, buyers have disappeared. But from the volume structure, four key signals are worth watching:
✅ Open interest (OI) continues to decline.
Since the high point on May 5, OI has fallen from $29.09 billion to $26.84 billion, a decrease of $80k, down 7.75%. OI decline + sideways price indicates leverage is retreating, not a setup for a breakout. If OI doesn't grow again, prices are likely to remain sideways.
✅ Funding rates are extremely negative.
The 8-hour average funding rate across the market has fallen to -0.0122%, the most extreme reading on the chart. Derivatives market positions are clearly leaning toward shorting. But extremely negative funding rates are a double-edged sword — crowded shorts may cause prices to rebound to clear some short positions.
✅ Spot trading volume has slightly increased but not significantly.
Spot volume rose from 20,118 BTC to 20,671 BTC, an increase of only 553 BTC (+2.75%). This isn't a sign of strong demand expansion; buying hasn't surged in.
✅ Volatility has dropped sharply.
Volatility has fallen from over 5% to 2.79%. With OI decreasing, volatility narrowing, and the effective price range shrinking, the market is accumulating energy.
Technically, prices are in a contracting triangle pattern, with support at 80,800 and resistance at 82,300-82,800. This isn't "volume drying up to stop the fall," but "calm before the storm." The market is waiting for two catalysts: the Clarity Act on May 14 and the change of Federal Reserve Chair.
4. On-chain data and news: institutional divergence, Clarity Act and Powell's departure as next triggers!
ETF funds: slight inflow, but institutions are divided:
Yesterday, ETF net inflow was $27.29 million. Morgan Stanley MSBT net inflow of $26.3 million, but BlackRock IBIT net outflow of $7.43 million, Fidelity FBTC net outflow of $3.6 million. Not "institutions all bullish," but a pattern of "MSBT buying, IBIT selling," with BlackRock, previously a bullish player, starting to sell Bitcoin!
Clarity Act: scheduled for May 14, short-term catalyst:
The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on May 14 (Thursday) at 10:30 am. A bipartisan compromise has been reached, and the White House has set July 4 as the target signing date. If the hearing passes smoothly, it could serve as a short-term catalyst (second top at 82,000-83,000); if blocked, short-term sentiment will be suppressed.
Powell's departure: historical data shows "leadership change curse" cannot be ignored!
Barclays research shows that since 1930, after each Federal Reserve Chair change, the S&P 500's maximum drawdown on average: 5% within 1 month, 12% within 3 months, 16% within 6 months. Recent transition records:
✅️In February 2018, Powell succeeded Yellen: first week of tenure saw "volatility apocalypse," with the S&P 500 plunging 10% over several days.
✅️In February 2006, Bernanke succeeded Greenspan: three months after, the S&P 500 dropped from 1,326 to 1,223, about an 8% decline.
✅️Greenspan took office in August 1987: on the 69th day, Black Monday occurred, with the Dow plunging 22.6% in a single day.
Powell's resignation on May 15 and Waller's appointment are likely to trigger short-term volatility in US stocks. As a risk asset, Bitcoin will find it hard to be immune.
5. Three levels of impact and market logic after CPI release
First level: data is out, maintaining the current structure.
The market interprets the data as "transient" rather than "trend," willing to keep oscillating between 80,000 and 82,000.
Second level: rate hike expectations heat up, but not deadly in the short term.
CME FedWatch shows about a 73% chance of maintaining current rates by year-end, with implied rate hike probability rising to about 20%. Fed officials have stated that core inflation remains stubborn, requiring strong policy responses. The core suppression of risk assets isn't from a "sudden crash," but from "rate cuts being far off."
Third level: geopolitical deadlock persists; without easing, no big drop.
The US-Iran standoff continues. Trump rejects Iran's proposals, calling them "completely unacceptable." As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, inflation expectations won't truly cool down. Geopolitical risk premiums remain, and the link between oil prices and inflation hasn't been broken.
Market logic and technical state:
After CPI release, no new catalysts in the short term. The remaining two variables this week are the Clarity Act review (May 14) and Powell's departure (May 15).
6. Three possible Bitcoin price trajectories
Scenario 1: Clarity Act catalyst pulse (probability 45-50%)
If the review on May 14 passes smoothly, prices may spike to 82,000-83,000 forming a second top, then retreat (double top to trap bulls), with the second top being an ideal short entry zone.
Scenario 2: sideways consolidation (probability 35-40%)
If there's no substantial progress or catalyst, prices will continue oscillating between 80,000 and 82,000, waiting for the next trigger.
Scenario 3: direct decline (probability 15-20%)
If the review is blocked or macro negatives accumulate, prices may directly fall to support at 79,000-79,500.
Regardless of how Bitcoin's price bounces around, it ultimately cannot escape the downward trend, and the weekly fifth wave main decline is inevitable!
7. Trading strategy: focus on one range and two windows
Current operation: market is calm after CPI release, mainly observe.
Long conditions: this is a short-term long strategy; if price revisits 79,000-79,500 and stabilizes, lightly go long. Stop loss at 78,500, target 81,500-82,000.
Short conditions: if price rebounds to 82,000-83,500 with bearish signals, scale in gradually. Stop loss at 86,000.
Monitor two time windows:
✅️May 14: Clarity Act Senate review (short-term catalyst);
✅️May 15: Powell's departure and Waller's appointment (history shows post-change US stocks likely to retrace, Bitcoin may be affected).
These are for reference only, not investment advice!