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Just stumbled upon something fascinating – this 150-year-old market cycle theory that's still weirdly relevant today. A guy named Samuel Benner back in 1875 mapped out what he called the periods when to make money, essentially creating a framework for understanding when financial markets panic, boom, or crash.
Here's the core idea: markets move in predictable cycles, roughly every 18-20 years. Benner broke it down into three distinct phases that repeat.
First, there are the panic years – 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and coming up 2035, 2053. During these stretches, financial crises hit hard. Markets collapse, panic spreads. The advice here is straightforward: don't panic sell. These are exactly the times when people make their worst decisions.
Then you've got the boom years. This is when prices recover and surge – think 1928, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, 2026, 2034, and so on. These are the windows when you should be taking profits and selling. Markets are strong, sentiment is positive, prices are elevated. If you've been holding through the tough times, this is when you cash out.
The third phase is the recession and decline years – 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, 2040, 2050. Prices are depressed, growth is slow. This is actually the best buying opportunity. When everything looks grim and prices are beaten down, that's when smart money accumulates.
The strategy is elegant: buy when everyone's scared (recession phase), hold through the chaos (panic years), then sell when euphoria returns (boom years). It's basically contrarian investing wrapped in a historical pattern.
Now, important caveat – this isn't gospel. Markets are influenced by politics, wars, technological shifts, unexpected economic shocks. The theory gives you a framework, not a guarantee. But as a lens for understanding long-term market cycles and periods when to make money, it's genuinely useful.
What's wild is we're literally in a predicted boom year right now (2026). Whether that holds or gets disrupted by some black swan event, who knows. But it's worth keeping this cycle in mind when making decisions about your portfolio.