Do you know the story of Samuel Benner? This farmer from Ohio discovered something fascinating after being ruined by the 1873 market panic. While trying to understand why the market behaved that way, he sensed that there was a logic behind it, a pattern that repeated itself.

Benner was a natural observer. As a farmer, he knew well how the seasons affected crops, and how these in turn impacted demand, supply, and prices. So he started digging deeper and discovered something extraordinary: there is a predictable market cycle. In 1875, he published a book titled "Business Trends and Phases," where he explained his revolutionary method.

Benner's cycle works like this. He identified three distinct phases that continually repeat. First, there are the panic years, periods of extreme volatility where investors act impulsively, driven by fear or greed. Prices fluctuate wildly, and those who know how to move can make a fortune, but those who make the wrong moves risk disaster. Then come the good times, when prices rise and selling opportunities are everywhere. Finally, the hard times, when prices collapse and it's time to accumulate assets at low prices.

This theory is not mere speculation. Benner's cycle has worked incredibly well for over 100 years. It accurately predicted the Great Depression of 1929, the Dotcom bubble in the early 2000s, even the COVID crisis in 2020. How is this possible? Benner discovered that cycles are linked to 11-year solar cycles, which influence agricultural productivity. In historical data, he found 11-year cycles in corn and pork prices, with peaks every 5-6 years. For iron, the cycle is longer, 27 years, with lows every 11, 9, and 7 years, and peaks every 8, 9, and 10 years.

Studying how Benner's cycle influenced prices in the past helps you understand the present. According to this analysis, we are currently in a difficult phase, with asset prices declining. If the theory holds, this could be the right moment to accumulate. Of course, this is not a guarantee, but it's interesting how a pattern discovered 150 years ago continues to prove useful even today.