HSBC raises this year's Brent crude oil forecast to $95

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HSBC last week raised its forecast for the 2026 Brent crude oil average price to $95 per barrel, citing the potential extension of the effective closure time of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a report dated May 6, HSBC stated that its baseline scenario assumes that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf region will gradually recover starting mid-June, returning to near-normal systemic production and flow levels by the end of Q3 2026.

HSBC added that if supply disruptions persist longer, it would mean greater inventory depletion, increased difficulty in rebuilding stocks post-war, and rising residual risk premiums, thereby supporting higher long-term oil price anchors.

Under scenario-based assumptions, HSBC expects that if relevant agreements are only reached by the end of summer and oil prices cycle back periodically due to news, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 would be about $110 per barrel, and around $85 in 2027.

The bank also stated that in a pessimistic scenario, if a comprehensive agreement takes about six months to reach, leading to continued severe restrictions on oil supply, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 could reach $120 per barrel, and $95 in 2027.

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