#Gate广场五月交易分享 AI Quantitative - Bitcoin's First "Golden Cross" Since 2023: Is BTC About to Enter a New Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) may see a sustained upward trend, as a key valuation indicator signals a pending bullish confirmation, suggesting BTC prices could go "much higher," according to crypto analysts.

The Bitcoin MVRV golden cross signal indicates a bullish shift, which historically often precedes sustained price increases. Bitcoin traders believe $60,000 is the bottom of the bear market and expect a "huge" BTC price breakout next.

Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Signals a "Trend Reversal"
CryptoQuant analysts say that Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio — an indicator of whether an asset is overvalued — is about to form a "golden cross," which has previously preceded large-scale price surges.
The analyst posted on X on Sunday: "$BTC The golden cross between the MVRV ratio and the 200-day EMA line is imminent." He added, "This signal is a representative trend reversal indicator and a bullish sign."
The last time this indicator showed a bullish crossover was shortly after the 2022 cycle bottom, after which BTC price rose 90% from $16,300 to $31,000 in Q1 2023. Following another crossover in September 2023, a 400% bull market followed, pushing prices to a record high of $126,000 in October 2025.
In previous analysis, the research team pointed out that the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin's MVRV ratio crossed above the 90-day SMA at the end of April, indicating: "$BTC has fully shifted to a bullish trend."
Meanwhile, Bitcoin recently rebounded to $83,000, with new buyers returning to profitability, causing short-term holder (STH) cost basis levels to rise.
STH cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
The "overheated" zone for this indicator is currently at $92,000.
Despite current profit-taking, the STH risk zone still shows room for BTC to rise in the short term, with the "overheated" zone at $92,000 and the "super overheated" zone at $104,000.
Bitcoin short-term cost basis range.

As reported by Cointelegraph, analysts say Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, as it is retesting the 82,500 USD 200-day moving average.
Breaking through this level could end months-long downtrend; if it pulls back, it could trigger a new round of selling, dropping toward $50,000.
Analyst Shib Spain believes that BTC breaking above the long-term downtrend line on the weekly chart marks a structural shift, weakening the dominance of bears, and the bullish crossover of the MACD further reinforces this view.
In a recent X post, the analyst said: "Bitcoin's huge breakout is imminent. The MACD bullish reversal is forming." He added, "The bull market has just begun."
Another analyst, Moustache, pointed out that BTC's market cap and RSI have rebounded from multi-year support levels on the monthly cycle. On Monday, he posted on X: "Just like in 2022, I judge that this cycle's $BTC has already bottomed." He further added, "Prices will go much higher, much further. We have big things to look forward to."
As reported by Cointelegraph, several analysts expect that supported by institutional accumulation and technical strength, Bitcoin could initiate a "super cycle" within this year, targeting $180,000 to $250,000.

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