The overall CPI annual rate on the data side is 3.8%, core CPI annual rate is 2.8%, core monthly rate is 0.4%, all three are higher than expected. This is not just a false fire driven by a single energy item; core inflation is heating up along with it, indicating that inflation has already propagated deeper, which perfectly aligns with the second scenario we previously projected based on the data. The market reaction is also very direct: after the data was released, Bitcoin retraced and dropped to around 80,500, while Ethereum also weakened simultaneously. This is the first wave of bearish sentiment release following the negative news.

However, on the four-hour chart, after this bearish candle, it just touched the upper edge of our repeatedly mentioned 80,000-80,500 core support zone, which is around 80,500, and stopped there without breaking through in one go. Although the candle body is large, the lower shadow has already started to recede, indicating that buying pressure in this area still exists. We previously mentioned that as long as the 80,000-80,500 top-bottom transition platform is not effectively broken, the bullish structure remains intact. Currently, it’s just testing the validity of this support with bearish pressure. The key now is how this four-hour candle closes. If it closes back near 81,000, leaving a long lower shadow, it would be a very typical exhaustion pattern of bearish momentum, and the bulls could reorganize and push back to 82,000. But if the 80,500 level is repeatedly tested and cannot rebound, with the candle body continuously suppressing, then we should be alert that the support is being exhausted. The next support levels are the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 80,000 and the final line of defense at 78,500. Currently, indicators are in an oversold phase, so there is still potential for a rebound.

Bitcoin can be bought near 80,500, with targets around 82,000. The stop-loss is at 80,000. Ethereum can be lightly bought around 2,280, with targets near 2,330. #Gate广场五月交易分享 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌