Don't just focus on the 600% surge in fiber optics! The next core: quartz sand! It is one of the three main raw materials for fiber optics, electronic fabric, and chips.

The hottest industries recently: Optical fiber, electronic cloth, semiconductor chips! [Taogu Ba]
So I’ve been thinking, is there something that’s closely related to all three of them?
Especially the upstream raw materials?
After continuous pondering, I found the core: Quartz sand!

And after checking, I found that there really is capital starting to push it! And it’s following a golden pit! U-shaped reversal pattern!
And the underlying value and driving logic behind this are even deeper thoughts!
Because it might become the next: Indium phosphide!

1. The four major hot industries, the core behind them: Quartz sand!

High-purity quartz sand as the core raw material, corresponding to different product forms:

All four upstream core raw materials are high-purity quartz sand, just with different purity levels:
Photovoltaics: 4N8 (99.998%)
Optical fiber: 5N (99.999%)
Semiconductors / Q-fabric: 5N–6N (99.999%–99.9999%)
From ore → high-purity sand → quartz tubes / rods / crucibles across the entire industry chain, producing high-purity sand for self-use + export, which is its most core barrier.

2. Core catalyst: Policy and price hikes driven by dual forces

1. The industry cycle positioning has undergone a structural shift:
   Electronic materials are transitioning from a cost transmission cycle to a super cycle driven by technological scarcity and supply chain security. The iteration of AI computing architecture (NVIDIA Rubin / GB300) demands exponentially higher strength in low-loss substrates, combined with overseas technology restrictions and domestic substitution policies, turning high-end materials from optional to essential.
2. The three-time shift in pricing power:
   ① Raw chemical materials (resins/methanol) → ② Midstream CCL manufacturing (capacity bottlenecks) → ③ Upstream core substrates (Q-fabric / HVLP copper foil / 6N quartz sand). Currently, pricing power is firmly held by leading materials with certification barriers and scarce capacity, with gross profit margins having a structural upward space of 5-12 percentage points.
3. Incremental market and profit elasticity estimates:
   From 2025-2027, the combined new market space for high-purity quartz sand, high-end electronic cloth, and high-frequency high-speed copper foil is about 32-38 billion yuan. The profit contribution from refining and high-end substrates exceeds 15 billion yuan, with profit growth significantly outpacing revenue growth.
4. CCL price hike wave: driven by costs and demand

Reasons for price hikes: Rising prices of resin raw materials like methanol and xylene, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical has already increased prices by 20% and expects further hikes; coupled with explosive demand for AI servers causing supply-demand imbalance for high-end CCL, shifting pricing power from cost to supply and demand.
Transmission mechanism: CCL → PCB → electronic cloth / copper foil / resin, with prices across the entire industry chain rising in tandem. Electronic cloth has seen four consecutive price increases since the beginning of the year, with many manufacturers experiencing tight inventories and full-capacity production.
Duration: The irreversible trend of high-frequency AI and high-speed demands means high-end materials shortages will last at least until the end of 2027, establishing a super cycle.

3. Industry logic reshaping: How to reconstruct the trajectory of the electronic materials industry

1. Macro and policy: From strategic reserves to mandatory substitution for supply chain security
   70% localization policy for high-purity quartz sand: accelerating the localization of purification processes

Policy core: Domestic policies are expected to introduce special support measures, clearly stipulating that 70% of downstream high-end materials (semiconductors, photovoltaics, electronics, etc.) will be supplied by domestically produced quartz sand, without restricting overseas mining, focusing on guiding the localization of purification processes.
Policy background: China has long depended on imports for high-purity quartz sand, with less than 10% self-sufficiency in semiconductor-grade, just over 35% in photovoltaic-grade, and high-end markets monopolized by US Silvaco and Norwegian TQC, risking being “choked.”
Core impact: The policy will directly promote breakthroughs in purification technology and capacity expansion, with domestic leaders like Quartz Shares and Feilihua entering a rapid growth phase.

Geopolitical technology restrictions spillover effects: US export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment/materials to China continue to tighten, Japan and Korea also restrict some high-purity chemicals and precision substrates. Domestic wafer fabs, packaging/testing companies, and top PCB firms are accelerating the adoption of secondary and tertiary suppliers, testing tolerance levels. The penetration curve of domestically used materials—usable, good, standard—will be significantly compressed.

2. Demand side: AI computing architecture iteration reshapes material physical boundaries
   Material strength leap in NVIDIA Rubin/GB300 architecture: new generation GPU interconnect bandwidth exceeds 10TB/s, PCB layer count jumps from 12-16 to 20-30 layers, signal integrity requirement Df≤0.0015@10GHz, CTE must closely match silicon chips. Traditional E-glass cloth can no longer meet these needs; quartz composite cloth (Q-fabric) and ultra-low profile copper foil (HVLP) become essential.
   Hyperscaler capital expenditure structure tilt: 2025 global cloud providers’ AI-related Capex will increase by over 35%, with server motherboard, switch board, and optical module substrates accounting for over 60%. AI server CCL usage per unit reaches 8-15㎡ (vs. 2-3㎡ for traditional servers), with material consumption multiplying.
   Advanced packaging (CoWoS/SoIC) spillover demand: 2.5D/3D packaging demands strict dielectric and thermal management, boosting demand for high-purity quartz ceramics and low-loss packaging substrates. Quartz sand extends from front-end process materials to back-end packaging substrates, broadening market boundaries.
3. Supply side: Global capacity constraints and longer lead times
   Japan/Korea high-end substrate capacity bottlenecks: Panasonic, Nitto, JX Metals, Mitsui and others have 18-24 month expansion cycles, with high patent barriers. Since Q1 2025, lead times for high-end electronic cloth have extended to 6-10 weeks, HVLP copper foil processing fees up over 40%.
   Domestic capacity is in certification ramp-up: domestic companies have built purification lines, drawing lines, surface treatment lines, but SEMI/TSMC/top CCL certification cycles typically take 9-15 months. Currently, capacity is in the critical window of being operational, improving yield, and locking in large orders. Supply elasticity lags behind demand explosion, causing phased supply-demand mismatches.
   Raw material cost disturbances: Copper prices remain high due to macro easing expectations and new energy demand; epoxy resin fluctuates with methanol/xylene prices, but high-end CCL can pass costs downstream, with cost pressures concentrated at mid-low end CCL, while high-end materials enjoy premiums due to scarcity.

4. Quartz sand: Market value and incremental estimates!

1. Global and China high-purity quartz sand market size

2025 global market size: about 4.7 billion USD (≈33 billion RMB)
Price structure:
Photovoltaic grade (4N8): 35,000–45k RMB/ton (long-term contract)
Optical fiber grade (5N): 50,000–70k RMB/ton, 2026: 68k RMB/ton
Semiconductor grade (6N): 200,000–300k RMB/ton (imported)
2. China high-purity quartz sand (4N8+): supply, demand, and prices

2025 China market size: about 8.4–12 billion RMB (centered around 10 billion)
Import dependence: 55–60% in 2025, decreasing to 10–15% by 2028
3. By product: core company market share (2025–2028)

5. Related beneficiary companies:

Summary: Quartz sand has completely transformed from a “photovoltaic cycle stock” to a “semiconductor/AI material core material”! Its core logic is not about selling sand, but about selling “certification barriers + purification yield + precision processing.” From 2025-2028, with policy-driven substitution, explosive demand for AI computing materials, and overseas restrictions clearing supply,
it’s recommended to closely track “wafer fab certification approvals,” “optical fiber casing shipments,” and “Q-fabric downstream long-term orders” as high-frequency indicators for valuation jumps.
Among them, two companies are the most valuable and may benefit from this gap + price hikes + capacity expansion explosion! Recognize the value—not just chasing the surge now, but like I previously wrote: Indium phosphide leader: Yunnan Gera, wait for adjustments, which might be more valuable and selective!
If you don’t know which ones, like + share + comment: Don’t just watch the 600% surge in optical fiber! The next core: Quartz sand! It’s the three core raw materials for optical fiber, electronic cloth, and chips!

The above is just my personal trading review and reflection. Investment involves risks; trade cautiously! Plans are never faster than the market, so everything should be based on market conditions. The content is my personal thinking and record, for sharing my understanding of the market, not investment advice. Trade at your own risk!
(Researching and organizing data is not easy; your: like + share + comment, is our motivation. Thank you!)

Overall market situation: Today’s market surged again but then pulled back, with rising risks. As I mentioned before, the key risk around the 13th may cause oscillation and adjustment until the 15th. Today, 3846 stocks declined, only 1275 rose, and trading volume dropped to 3.24 trillion, with sentiment also declining. So, it’s more appropriate to reduce positions to about 60%, and then further observe the subsequent risks! Meanwhile, in overall defensive thinking, further observation is recommended!

Sentiment: sentiment declining, 57 limit-up stocks, 7 limit-down, 71% limit-up rate, total 17 consecutive limit-up stocks, with 5 stocks hitting 5 limit-ups.
Sector-wise: The current core theme: computing power projects, with the strongest sectors being: computing power projects + chip industry + power! Computing power projects remain the key focus, chips continue to strengthen, and power is now the defensive core, becoming a key focus. Further related thoughts are being observed!! Supporting sectors: robotics + real estate + lithium batteries!
Computing power projects: Leading stock Tongding Interconnection with 4 limit-ups, with other stocks like Yuandong with 2 limit-ups, whether Zongcheng and Tongguang continue to catch up is critical.
Power: Leading stock Datang Power with 5 limit-ups, triggering a second wave of coordinated surge in power and electricity, driving Huadian and thermal power stocks. This is worth further thought in defense.
Chip industry: Leading stock Kangxin New Materials with 3 limit-ups, with others like Shangfeng and Yellow River with 2 limit-ups, and the emotional leader is Jintanglang with 11 limit-ups in 15 days.
Success has no shortcuts, only discipline and persistence! Wishing everyone on the relentless pursuit of success, the more effort, the luckier!

Today’s highlights:

1. Rumors say Tesla’s AI6 chip may be transferred to Intel
2. Power and energy synergy: The “Action Plan for Promoting Bidirectional Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy” was released, explicitly exploring nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to directly power AI infrastructure, with systematic deployment of mechanisms like power-energy synergy, green power direct connection, and zero-carbon park record-keeping.
3. Optical fiber and cables: NVIDIA and Corning are advancing optical connectivity, with optical fiber core stocks reaching new highs, and trading sentiment extending to lower-tier cable stocks.
4. Eastcore Co.: Increasing production and inventory of major storage product lines in an orderly manner

Follow commodity themes

1. Live hogs 9.5 (-0.21%, pig cost 12, Muyuan 11.6 yuan, feed over 50%, labor 10-15%)
2. Battery lithium carbonate 199k (1.53%, salt lake cost 30,000–40k, mica 60,000–90k, lithium hydroxide 60,000–80k)
3. Praseodymium-neodymium oxide 757.5k (-0.66%), NdFeB N35: 1.8M (0%) (light cost 350k–400k, MP79,000, Australia 450,000–500k. Mining: 8,000–10,000 RMB/ton, medium-heavy rare earths 1.3–1.5 million RMB/ton)
   First like, then watch, aiming for a million a month! Thanks for everyone’s support!