These days, I see everyone interpreting ETF capital flows, U.S. stock risk appetite, and crypto price movements as if they are all tightly linked, and I find myself getting sleepy while scrolling... Macro narratives can be explained, but when it comes to my own positions, there's still the old problem: who is actually eating the time value of options.

I used to think the buyer was miserable, slowly losing out to theta every day; only after a "version update" to my mindset did I realize that the seller isn't just getting something for nothing—collecting that small premium is actually selling insurance, and when the market suddenly moves, it takes many small gains to cover a big loss. To put it simply, time works for the seller, but tail risk is watching the seller. Anyway, I now prefer to choose what kind of discomfort I can tolerate: losing a little every day, or occasionally getting wiped out in one big move... I’d rather miss out than get trapped, so for now, that’s how I’ll do it.