Tonight's CPI data is more explosive than the non-farm payrolls! The second month of rising oil prices, the crypto market trend is about to be revealed.

First, the key point: the market expects the US April CPI year-over-year to be 3.7%, much higher than the previous 3.3%; fortunately, the month-over-month forecast is 0.6%, lower than the previous 0.9%. The core CPI annual rate is expected to be 2.7%, only slightly higher than the previous 2.6%—indicating that overall inflation is still manageable, and the impact of high oil prices is limited, so no need to panic.
But the tone is somewhat bearish: inflation is still high, and the Federal Reserve will find it even harder to loosen policy. If it meets expectations, that's okay; if it exceeds expectations, it’s just another blow!
Impact on various assets 👇
· Crypto, gold: most afraid of liquidity tightening. If CPI shows stickiness, it will directly suppress rate cut expectations, and these two are likely to remain volatile under pressure, unlikely to be as vigorous as the US stock market.
· US stocks: macro-wise, it's bearish, but current market sentiment is exuberant. Even if CPI exceeds expectations, it will only cause a brief cooling, and may even provide a low-entry window for high-risk appetite investors. It cannot extinguish the heat of the US stock market.
One sentence: don’t be a grasshopper. Before the data is released, US stocks, crypto, and gold have already taken a dive, with enough pressure. Everyone should manage their positions according to their risk preferences, and don’t come after the fact saying I called for rise or fall—I only analyze the logic, not guess specific targets.
It’s necessary to discuss again after the data is out. If not released, then there’s no need; go back and read it a few more times, the logic is sufficient. #Gate广场五月交易分享