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Today’s Crude Oil Price Market Analysis

‌On May 12, 2026, international oil prices saw a sharp rally. Brent crude oil was reported at ‌107.04 USD per barrel‌, and WTI U.S. crude oil futures were reported at ‌101.22 USD per barrel‌, up ‌3%‌ from the previous day.

一、Market Trend and Key Price Levels

‌Current price‌: Brent crude oil ‌107.04 USD per barrel‌, WTI crude oil ‌101.22 USD per barrel‌.

‌Short-term support level‌: WTI has formed support around ‌100 USD per barrel‌. If it breaks below, it may test ‌96 USD‌.

‌Short-term resistance level‌: Brent crude oil faces resistance around ‌112 USD per barrel‌. If it breaks through, it may move higher further.

二、Core Factors Driving the Rise or Fall

‌1. Geopolitical risk premium‌

The Strait of Hormuz remains in a “fragile ceasefire” state. Although the United States has launched a “Freedom Plan” escort, Iran continues to retaliate with missiles and drones. Reports circulating today indicate that the U.S. intends to resume military actions against Iran, pushing oil prices higher. Currently, about ‌14.5 million barrels‌ of global daily oil supply are restricted, which boosts the risk premium.

‌2. OPEC+ supply dynamics‌

Due to export disruptions, countries such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia collectively cut production by ‌7.5 million barrels per day‌ in March, and April is expected to rise to ‌9.1 million barrels per day‌. If the conflict eases, the restart of production will quickly increase supply, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

‌3. Changes in global inventories and demand‌

Strong production has caused global inventories to accumulate rapidly. The EIA expects that inventories in ‌2026‌ will increase by ‌2.2 million barrels per day‌, creating downward pressure on prices.

However, China’s strategic reserves continue to purchase, and demand for jet fuel remains steady, partly offsetting the excess-pressure.

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4. Financial market sentiment‌

Brent open interest has fallen to the lowest level in the past year. Market liquidity is poor, and any news could trigger sharp volatility. At the same time, the Japanese yen is significantly affected by oil prices. With oil prices staying high, Japan’s import-led inflation worsens, suppressing the yen’s valuation.

三、Outlook for the Next Phase

Short term (1–2 weeks): If the Middle East situation does not ease noticeably, oil prices may continue to trade in a ‌100–112 USD‌ range. The May 21 domestic refined oil price adjustment window is approaching, and it is expected to see a cut of ‌0.17–0.20 yuan per liter‌.

‌Mid term (Q3–Q4 2026)‌: As passage through the strait gradually resumes and the supply gap narrows, combined with global inventory pressure, oil prices may fall back to the ‌60–70 USD per barrel‌ range. J.P. Morgan predicts that the 2026 Brent average price will be ‌60 USD per barrel‌.