Tonight at 8:30 PM, US CPI data will be released, and market sentiment has already entered a betting phase in advance.

From expectations, both the year-over-year rate and core data show signs of turning back up, suggesting that the market still worries inflation could come back again, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to easily send a rate-cut signal in the short term.

For the crypto market, such data often directly affects expectations for US dollar liquidity.
If the actual release comes in higher than expected, the market will further strengthen the view that “high interest rates will stay higher for longer,” and risk assets are likely to face pressure; it’s not ruled out that Bitcoin and Ethereum could see another quick spike downward before stabilizing.
On the contrary, if the data is below expectations, market sentiment will quickly improve, risk appetite will rise, and the crypto market may have the chance to ride the momentum to push higher again.

But judging by the current market setup, after Bitcoin’s continuous surge it has already reached a sensitive high zone; in the short term, sentiment is somewhat overexcited. Ahead of the data release, a scenario where both longs and shorts get squeezed is more likely.
At times like this, the most taboo thing is chasing gains and selling into dips—especially when using high leverage to make a hard bet on direction.

My personal view still leans toward consolidation.
Be cautious about placing trades before the data is released, and focus on the true market reaction after the data lands. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, be wary of taking profits at high levels; if it comes in cooler than expected, it may become a catalyst for further upside in the short term.

Tonight is definitely not going to be calm—controlling position size matters more than the direction.
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