U.S. April CPI Data to Be Released Tonight, Year-over-Year Growth May Hit Near Three-Year High

May 12 News, The U.S. April CPI report will be released at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, with the market generally expecting this data to hit a new high in inflation in nearly three years, driven by multiple overlapping pressures.

Economists forecast that the month-over-month increase in the overall CPI for April will slow from 0.9% in March to 0.6%, but the year-over-year growth is expected to accelerate from the previous 3.3% to 3.7%, the highest in nearly three years. Core CPI is expected to rise slightly to 0.3% month-over-month and increase to 2.7% year-over-year.

The main reasons driving this inflation rebound are as follows: first, gasoline prices have surged significantly due to the ongoing escalation of the Iran conflict. Second, housing inflation may rebound due to technical statistical factors.

Additionally, affected by the U.S. government shutdown in 2025, housing sample data for April will be officially included in the statistics, which could also push up core inflation readings.

Analysis indicates that this inflation data may become the first major test for Fed Chair Kevin Woor after taking office. If inflation exceeds expectations and rises sharply, it could trigger market concerns about further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

At that time, markets for gold, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies may experience intense volatility. Investors are closely watching the market reaction after the data release to gauge the Fed’s future policy path.

However, some analysts believe that the current high inflation mainly stems from geopolitical conflicts and statistical disturbances, which are short-term factors and are expected to gradually ease later.

Some institutions also warn that if the Iran conflict persists and oil prices remain high, inflationary pressures could spread to more sectors, potentially pushing the May CPI year-over-year growth above 4%, which could prolong the Federal Reserve’s period of high interest rates.

#CPI data