Tonight at 8:30, inflation data will determine the next direction~

April US CPI, on time to trigger a reaction~
Wall Street's expectation: The market expects the April CPI year-over-year increase to 3.8%, with some institutions giving a more aggressive forecast of 4%, far above March's 3.3%; core CPI year-over-year is expected to be 2.7%, also higher than last month~
This is not ordinary inflation data; this is the first report card of energy shock secondary transmission~
The transmission path of the Strait of Hormuz blockade is being realized one by one:
High oil prices → expensive gasoline → costly transportation → everything becomes expensive~
Fertilizer disruption → food prices rise → food inflation quietly climbs~
Energy prices rise → landlords' utility costs increase → rent follows suit~
U.S. banks have pushed back the Federal Reserve's rate cut to mid-2027, further delaying previous expectations~
Tonight's data, the market fears two outcomes:
Above expectations — inflation out of control narrative becomes reality, the Fed is completely locked in, and the stock market crashes~
In line with expectations — a brief sigh of relief, but the energy shock secondary transmission may still be on the way, making next month even more difficult~
#美国CPI #Inflation #美联储 #Energy Shock​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ #Secondary Transmission of Inflation