Wintermute's latest report highlights a key signal: the recent rebound of Bitcoin above $80k is fundamentally driven by leveraged short squeeze rather than a healthy structural rally.

Open interest surged by $10 billion in one month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low. This divergence indicates that price discovery is shifting from the spot market to derivatives, where leverage acts as a double-edged sword.
ETF net inflows reached $623 million, and exchange reserves hit a seven-year low, supporting long-term confidence based on these fundamentals. But RSI has entered overbought territory, and short-term risks should not be ignored.
The real test is whether the spot market has enough buying power to absorb withdrawals when leveraged funds start to retreat. Wintermute's conclusion is clear: we need to verify if this truly marks the beginning of a bull market. CPI data and the Fed's leadership change will be key variables.
For seasoned market observers, this signal is more important than any price prediction. Leveraged-driven rebounds tend to come quickly and fade just as fast, while a genuine structural rally requires sustained spot trading volume.
$btc