My understanding of the market is not just “bull” and “bear”

We know that trading occurs at different timeframes, and for traders or investors with different attributes, it's hard to define their understanding of the market simply as “bearish” or “bullish.” For example, with BTC, even if traders are long-term bullish, it doesn't prevent them from short-term shorting for profit during pullbacks in volatile movements.
Take myself as an example, as the market changes, I have gained a clearer understanding of various data. Signals from the bear market recovery model, price breaking through STH-RP and TMMP double resistance, LTH net positions continuously rising, and improved risk appetite among new investors; based on a comprehensive judgment, I believe the market has gradually emerged from a deep bear and is slowly transitioning into the “bull/bear switch” phase.
What is the “bull/bear transition period”? It’s when market sentiment swings irregularly, sometimes leaning bullish, sometimes bearish, so this phase is the process of the market re-establishing consensus and digesting disagreements. The duration could be several months or even longer.
However, demand has not fully recovered, and supply is still being distributed, with many chips exiting at a loss during rebounds. These cautious behaviors with a lack of confidence, in my view, are not yet the time to shout “bullish comeback.”
From the perspective of chip structure, turnover in the 79,000–82,000 range has significantly decreased, indicating that funds are not blindly rushing but waiting for clearer directional guidance. Meanwhile, the 65,000–78,000 range has already accumulated 14% of circulating chips.
Based on historical experience, this ratio is between “moderate” and “sufficient.” To reach a sufficiently full level, of course, more time is needed to complete the turnover.
Looking at the relationship between different coin-holding groups’ cost bases, rebounds in a bear market often encounter resistance at the cost line of holders with 6 months of holdings, then retest key support levels below for secondary confirmation.
Therefore, in the medium to short term, there is a complete possibility of retesting, but the lows should not break previous bottoms, or the probability of breaking new lows has greatly decreased compared to before.
Another factor to consider is <10y-rp — a “historical average turnover cost” that more closely reflects the real level after removing most of the lost BTC from cost statistics.
So far in this cycle, unlike previous bear markets, <10y-rp seems to have become an insurmountable barrier. It has replaced the role of Realized Price or LTH-RP as the reference for the bear bottom in past cycles.
When BTC repeatedly dips slightly below <10y-rp and then rises again, it indicates strong resistance from the bulls at this sensitive level, unlike before when they would simply capitulate. It also means this is the psychological limit for players. A pullback here can be fully absorbed by demand, with selling pressure met by buying.
In plain language, the market believes that BTC is now seriously undervalued; those who haven't sold are reluctant to sell, and those who sell will be immediately bought up. When you’re still waiting for BTC to break below Realized Price/LTH-RP as in past bear markets, funds are already coming in early to snatch the opportunity.
This logic and perspective are based on a comprehensive evaluation of multiple data points, not just blindly looking at indicators like MVRV/NUPL/SOPR.
So, are you saying I’m “bullish” or “bearish”? Neither! I think a more reasonable definition is: cautious + optimistic. (I categorize emotions into five levels: despair, pessimism, caution, optimism, positivity)
In February, I was very “pessimistic,” and thought BTC might drop to 50,000 or even lower. After all, at that time, a large amount of long-term chips flooded out, indiscriminately smashing into the market, demand under pressure, and consensus was on the brink of collapse.
However, as on-chain and off-chain data (including exchanges, derivatives/option markets) became clearer, I believe the situation might not be as bad as imagined. Even if demand hasn't fully recovered yet, we can at least see supply gradually drying up.
So, if you don’t differentiate between timeframes and ignore market sentiment and investor behavior, I can only say that what you see of me is just the version in your mind.
If you go long, you want me to also be bullish; if you short, you want me to be bearish; but that’s not me...