Trump says Iran ceasefire agreement is "on the line"
Copper prices hold steady at historic highs, "ignoring" the tumultuous waves of Hormuz

Bloomberg News has learned that U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal and stated that a ceasefire agreement with Iran is now “on the brink of collapse.” As a result, copper prices stabilized near their all-time high closing prices.

Trump’s latest comments highlight the deadlock in the Middle East conflict entering its tenth week, which has posed broad disruptions to the global economy. Nevertheless, metal prices have recorded strong gains over the past month, with a market correction following significant gains on Monday.

The metal market generally remains indifferent to the increased uncertainty caused by the Strait of Hormuz deadlock. The blockade imposed by Iran and the U.S. in the strait has cut off oil and natural gas shipments, pushing up global energy costs. Strong demand from China provides support. Analysts from institutions such as Citigroup and Jefferies believe copper prices will demonstrate relative resilience.

Sam Crittenden, a strategist at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, stated in an email report: “China’s willingness to accept higher prices remains a key issue, with recent data indicating strong fundamental demand.”

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Analysis

London copper futures hit a new record high again on May 11. Copper prices rose 2.7%, closing at $13,943 per ton, setting a new record close, surpassing the previous high of $13,618 set on January 29. Aluminum fell 0.7%, while zinc, which previously reached a three-year high, remained steady.

As of press time, copper prices were flat around $13,850 per ton, after initially dropping 0.8%.

Monday’s gains in copper, zinc, and silver were partly driven by market speculation about the fuel supply situation at major mining centers in Peru. The Lima government announced a $2 billion plan to rescue state-owned refining company PetroPeru, but there has been widespread discussion within China about risks faced by mining companies reliant on diesel supplies.

Zijie Wu, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co., said: “PetroPeru’s news is merely a financial arrangement and has not yet had a real impact on the mines. Peru’s problem is not the inability to obtain oil but the lack of funds to buy oil. As the Middle East crisis develops, supply-side concerns may still be triggered.”

Peru is a major producer of silver. On Monday, spot silver prices rose 7%, closing at $86.057 per ounce.

Citigroup’s latest report on May 12 listed copper as the top choice in China’s materials sector. Analysts pointed out that the sector’s performance has not fully reflected the strong metal price trend, and they expect mining stocks to follow commodity prices for a rebound; once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, copper prices could even accelerate upward. Goldman Sachs also emphasized that simultaneous demand from China and the U.S. for LME copper in May and June will drive inventories to further tighten and prices to strengthen.