Bitcoin "Bull and Bear Cycle Indicator" turns positive for the first time in 7 months—Is the bear market over or a false breakout?

Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has first turned positive since October 2025. Meanwhile, another core indicator, the Bull Score Index, has risen to a neutral range of 50 in late April. Bitcoin has closed higher for three consecutive months, rebounding from a February low of about $60k to above $81k. But lessons from 2022 remind the market: similar signals previously failed after about a week, and the price then continued to plunge deeply.

On-chain data for Bitcoin is now releasing a long-missed positive signal.

According to data from the CryptoQuant platform, the platform’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has recently flipped back into the positive range for the first time since its P&L index fell below the 365-day moving average in October 2025.

This indicator determines whether Bitcoin is in a bull or bear cycle by measuring the distance between the P&L index and its 365-day moving average. The P&L index itself combines three key on-chain metrics—MVRV ratio, NUPL, and the SOPR of long- and short-term holders—serving as CryptoQuant’s unified valuation tool to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at about $81k, up more than 35% from the cycle low of around $60k in early February.

Image source: CryptoQuant, original analyst MorenoDV_

From deep bear to the first positive flip: on-chain repair took 7 months

Looking back at the on-chain trajectory of this bear market: after Bitcoin crashed from its all-time high of $126k in October 2025, the bull-bear cycle indicator quickly dropped into negative territory. As reported by Cryptonomist earlier this February, the indicator fell to about -1.2 in early February, comparable to the lows during the March 2020 COVID crash. CryptBull’s report at the same time also confirmed that the indicator readings had reached the lowest level since the bottom of the 2022 FTX collapse.

From the deep bear bottom in February to the recent positive flip, the repair took about three months. This pace is faster than the 2022 cycle (when the indicator stayed in negative territory for about 12 months), but given this cycle’s drawdown of roughly 55% from peak to trough (from $126k down to under $60k), whether the repair is sustainable remains controversial.

Bull Score Index also rises to neutral; multiple indicators resonate

The bull-bear cycle indicator’s positive flip is not an isolated event.

According to a CoinDesk report on April 23, CryptoQuant’s other core metric, the Bull Score Index, also rose to a neutral reading of 50 at the same time—its first neutral reading since Bitcoin began falling from the $126k high.

The Bull Score Index aggregates 10 on-chain indicators, covering dimensions such as blockchain activity, investor profitability, and liquidity. Readings below 40 typically mean a structural bear market, while readings above 60 point to a strong, sustainable upward trend.

CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno commented that this is the first time the Bull Score Index has entered the neutral range during this bear market cycle. However, he also mentioned a precedent from March 2022: back then, the index similarly briefly rose to 50 but only held it for about a week, after which prices continued to fall sharply.

Improvements at the price level are also evident. Bitcoin closed up by about 2% in March and 12% in April; as of now in May, the gain is about 6%. It has recorded positive returns for three consecutive months.

A precedent from the 2022 “false signal”: history may not repeat, but markets remember

The market’s biggest doubt about the current positive signals comes from the historical lesson of 2022.

In March of that year, the Bull Score Index had briefly risen to the neutral range of 50, and then Bitcoin fell from about $47k all the way to $16k. The bull-bear cycle indicator also showed a brief positive flip in 2022, but ultimately continued to sink further amid the shocks from the back-to-back blowups of Luna/UST and FTX.

However, there are structural differences between this cycle and 2022. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important institutional demand anchor since they were launched in January 2024. According to SpotedCrypto, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs in April reached $2.44 billion, the strongest month since October 2025. Glassnode data shows that whale addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin increased by 142 over the past 6 months. In addition, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio is currently 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin history. The two earlier instances of similar high levels both appeared at the cycle bottoms in 2015 and 2022, after which sustained bull markets followed.

StoneX global research head Matt Weller provided a more cautious reference framework in his Q2 outlook.

Based on the Bitcoin four-year halving cycle, the enduring bottom of this cycle may not appear until around Q4 2026. If historical patterns hold, the drawdown from peak to bottom could be about 60%, corresponding to a price around $50k.

For traders, the real implication of the current signals may be:

The most panic-driven phase may already be behind us, but it is still too early to declare that a new bull market has begun. Bitcoin needs to break above the 200-day moving average resistance level around $82k and hold it to give more convincing confirmation from technical indicators of a trend reversal.

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