Recently, I’ve been thinking about an interesting phenomenon: why does every bull market feature a pattern of slow rises followed by sharp drops? When prices are climbing, they do so gradually to new highs; but once they fall, it’s often a sudden crash that catches people off guard.

I believe the fundamental reason is that, in the early stages of a bull market, no one truly believes it’s a bull market. Everyone is thinking that only after the market doubles, hits new all-time highs, and many coins increase five to ten times will they admit, “Oh, this really is a bull market.” But during this process, the market is already quietly shifting, with new funds continuously flowing in, pushing prices higher every day.

Even if prices spike in the morning and then plunge, by the last half hour before closing, there’s always capital rushing in to buy the dip. As a result, no matter how volatile the market is, it ultimately ends up rising. This is because the bulls are in control of the rhythm, winning every day.

And because of this, daily gains are usually not very large. After all, every day there are people optimistic and others pessimistic; sometimes negative news appears, but the market can quickly absorb it or even turn it into a positive. Under the tug-of-war of these factors, a special rhythm of slow rise and sharp fall forms — prices go up every day, sometimes significantly, sometimes just a little, with no major surprises.

The problem is that this process accumulates a large number of profit-taking positions. Many investors don’t actually have firm belief in the bull market; they’re just speculating, aiming to sell once prices reach a certain point. When one day the market suddenly drops and doesn’t immediately recover, these skeptics and speculators will all start selling off, leading to a sharp crash.

Therefore, the phenomenon of slow rise and sharp fall essentially reflects the inconsistent mentality of market participants. On the surface, everyone is riding the wave of the rise, but internally they’re asking, “Is this really a bull market?” Once confidence wavers, the previous slow ascent can instantly turn into a rapid decline. This is the risk in a bull market that’s most easily overlooked.