In recent months, an interesting phenomenon has repeatedly appeared in discussions about the crypto market: more and more retail investors are pulling out a chart from over 150 years ago to predict market trends. This is the so-called Benner-Zyklus, a cycle chart drawn by 19th-century farmer Samuel Benner. It sounds a bit magical, but in today’s uncertain market environment, this ancient theory has surprisingly regained attention.

Why are people talking about this again now? Mainly because market sentiment is shifting rapidly. In the week of April this year, global markets experienced a noticeable decline. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies dropped from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion, with many even describing the situation as "Black Monday." Meanwhile, JPMorgan raised the probability of a global recession to 60%, and Goldman Sachs also upgraded their recession forecast to 45%. Against this backdrop, people are seeking any possible market prediction tools.

The logic of the Benner-Zyklus is actually quite simple: After suffering heavy losses in the crisis of 1873, Samuel Benner began studying the cyclical patterns of agricultural product prices. He observed that solar activity cycles seemed to influence agricultural output, which in turn affected commodity prices. Based on this theory, he published "Futures Business Predictions and Price Fluctuations" in 1875 and created a chart. This chart marks different types of years with three lines: Panic years (Line A), Prosperous years (Line B), and Recession years (Line C).

Interestingly, this chart does indeed align with several major financial events in history—the Great Depression of 1929, the dot-com bubble, and even the impact of COVID-19—all can be found corresponding in the chart. Some investors claim that the Benner-Zyklus has successfully predicted these events. Based on this logic, some analysts point out that 2023 is the best buying point, and that the next market peak will come around 2026.

This view has gained widespread popularity in the crypto community. Many retail investors use this chart to support their optimistic expectations for 2025-2026, believing there is still room for an upward move before the recession truly hits. Their logic is: if the Benner-Zyklus is accurate, then there will still be speculative enthusiasm around 2026, especially in AI and emerging technology sectors.

But there are also obvious criticisms. Experienced traders like Peter Brandt have directly expressed skepticism on social media. He believes that such charts are of little help for actual trading and can even be distracting. More importantly, recent economic realities seem to challenge the accuracy of the Benner-Zyklus. Trump’s tariff policies triggered market volatility, and such political shocks are completely unpredictable within the agricultural cycle theory from 150 years ago.

On the other hand, some investors think that the reason the Benner-Zyklus appears effective is not because it has some magical power, but because enough people believe in it. The market is ultimately driven by sentiment, memory, and impulse, not just cold data. When a large number of retail investors make decisions based on the same chart, self-fulfilling prophecy can occur.

According to Google Trends search data, interest in the Benner-Zyklus has indeed peaked over the past month. This reflects that, during times of increasing economic and political uncertainty, retail investors are seeking any possible certainty—even if that certainty comes from an ancient agricultural price cycle chart.