The beer industry will be in a mild recovery trend in 2026

CITIC Securities believes that by 2026, the beer industry will be in a phase of moderate recovery.
In terms of channels, the current drinking channel is still expected to be in a bottoming adjustment stage, with the recovery pace needing to follow subsequent relevant consumption policies;
Non-current drinking channels have become a key competitive focus for liquor companies.
Against the backdrop of rapid development in emerging channels such as instant retail, companies with first-mover advantages have a greater chance of breaking through.
Looking ahead to the full year of 2026, it is expected that with the arrival of the peak season, liquor companies will maintain their stocking pace, continue to promote product structure optimization, and industry volume and prices may stabilize and recover gradually.

Dongwu Securities believes that, based on the pace of 2025, leading beer companies have achieved sales growth, while per-ton prices face marginal pressure;
For the forecast of 2026, quarterly marginal recovery is expected, with volume and price stabilizing and improving.
From the perspective of base effect in reports, in the first quarter of 2026, the beer sector is affected by high base numbers and weak recovery of consumption beta, resulting in continued weak apparent sales.
In the second and third quarters, as the base effect gradually lowers, combined with improvements in dining recovery beta and peak season catalysts, the overall report is expected to first decline and then rise, with key enterprises still focusing on big-hit products with momentum.

Guotai Haitong Securities (600837) believes that as the weather warms and the beer peak season arrives, several potential catalysts are worth noting in the coming quarters.

1. Sports events boost. The World Cup, provincial football leagues, and others are upcoming, and historically, such events have had a certain pull on beer consumption.
2. Signs of recovery in instant drinking scenarios are gradually emerging;
3. Base effect. In Q2 and Q3 of 2025, the beer industry performed relatively weakly due to demand environment and weather influences.
   Even if actual demand in 2026 only shows a moderate recovery, year-over-year figures are expected to improve, which could boost market sentiment and valuation centers.
   Cost concerns are temporarily unavoidable, but short-term impacts are controllable, and medium-term downward transmission is expected.

(Edited by: Zhang Xiaobo)

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