Bank of America: Apple's and Intel's collaboration may trigger a €4.6 billion wave of equipment procurement, with ASML expected to be the biggest winner

Apple and Intel’s potential chip foundry collaboration is triggering widespread attention in the semiconductor equipment industry.

According to the latest analysis by Bank of America, the value of this partnership could reach up to $10 billion, driving Intel to make large-scale purchases of chip manufacturing equipment. Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML and hybrid bonding equipment manufacturer BE Semiconductor are named as the most direct beneficiaries.

BofA estimates that, if the collaboration covers the iPhone product line, Intel’s order scale for ASML’s equipment could reach as high as 4.6 billion euros; the order volume for BE Semiconductor’s hybrid bonding machines could jump to 182 units, far exceeding previous expectations. This outlook constitutes a substantial positive for the performance prospects of the two Dutch equipment suppliers.

Background of the collaboration: Apple-Intel negotiations over a year

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal earlier this month, Apple and Intel have reached an initial agreement on chip foundry matters, with negotiations lasting over a year. Currently, Apple’s chips are mainly manufactured by TSMC. If the potential collaboration with Intel materializes, it will mark an important adjustment in Apple’s supply chain.

However, the specific technical details of the collaboration remain unclear, including what process technology Intel will adopt and what types of products it will produce for Apple.

Equipment demand: Will iPhone be included in the order scale decision?

BofA analysts point out that Intel’s equipment procurement scale will largely depend on whether the collaboration includes iPhone chip production.

In the baseline scenario, i.e., if the collaboration does not include iPhone, Intel’s order scale for ASML is expected to be about 1.8 billion euros; once iPhone is included, this figure will rise sharply to 4.6 billion euros, corresponding to Intel needing to purchase 15 EUV lithography machines.

BE Semiconductor also shows significant divergence expectations. If the collaboration is limited to non-iPhone products, Intel’s order volume for its hybrid bonding machines would be about 15 units; if iPhone is included, the order volume will jump to 182 units—this number is significantly higher than Intel’s original estimate of purchasing 80 units between 2024 and 2030.

ASML’s core position: EUV monopoly advantage becomes prominent

ASML holds a central position in this potential benefit pattern, primarily due to its monopoly status in the EUV lithography machine market. EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) equipment is an indispensable key device for manufacturing the most advanced process chips, and ASML is the world’s only supplier of EUV lithography machines.

If Intel is to undertake Apple’s advanced chip orders, it will inevitably need to expand EUV capacity, placing ASML in an irreplaceable position within this supply chain.

The potential order increase for BE Semiconductor is also closely related to Intel’s recent strategic expansion of its packaging business. BofA analysts point out that if Apple entrusts Intel with both packaging and bonding services, it will directly boost Intel’s demand for hybrid bonding equipment.

Intel has been continuously increasing its market promotion of packaging services recently. With the booming demand for AI infrastructure, TSMC’s packaging capacity has become tight, and Intel is actively seeking customers during this window.

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