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The Bear Market Trap in a Bear Market, You Need to Learn to Play Dead
Here's a fact: the market in the chart is controlled by the big players, everyone who has experienced bull and bear markets knows this, but it's not just a single big player, it's a community of whales.
The recent rebound in this bear market—don't look at the news, those are just reasons for the rise and fall, the key point is that before pushing in one direction, they clear out the longs and shorts.
You've seen many reasons why it can't go down further—record-breaking long negative funding rates, a large concentration of shorts—these gave the big players a nearly one-month almost unidirectional rise, not for any reason, to clear out the shorts above, while tricking the longs into fueling the move, preparing for further dips later.
Yes, I don't think this is a reversal; no bottom has ever moved straight up in an ascending wedge, not once.
The trend is repeating a replica from June to August 2022.
I need to admit that this wave came earlier than I expected; I had been judging that the February move this year was related to the May 2022 ladder pattern, but the reality is that this bear bottom directly skipped that ladder and moved into the next.
This is a stage where I should have avoided many trades.
If I was wrong, I need to admit it.
Currently, the situation is repeatedly testing highs and clearing out shorts, making the shorts dare not to short anymore—so the goal is achieved.
But the bad news now is that the funding rate remains negative, and the short positions are still crowded, giving the big players fuel to continue bouncing back.
This is a test of mental resilience; I choose to lie flat, to isolate myself from my fears.
Waiting quietly for May—two bear markets, both trending south in May.
What will happen this time?
Smoke a cigarette, do my own thing, don’t let emotions control me.