Tonight at 8:30 PM, U.S. April CPI data will determine Bitcoin's short-term breakout effect:

Current market expectations: unadjusted CPI year-over-year 3.7% (previous 3.30%), seasonally adjusted monthly rate 0.6% (previous 0.90%), stubborn inflation is now a market consensus.

Data trends will directly influence the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts:

If inflation exceeds expectations and rises, the rate cut window will be significantly delayed, high interest rate environment will continue, the opportunity cost of holding BTC will increase, and the market is likely to sell off risk assets, putting pressure on BTC to retreat.

If inflation cools more than expected, expectations for rate cuts will quickly heat up, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will weaken, funds will flow back into high-beta assets, and BTC will see a rally and break through previous resistance levels.

The market has already partially priced in the "stubborn inflation" expectation; after the event, watch out for reverse volatility from "all negative news out" or "all positive news realized."

Storms are brewing, and tonight's market will likely be a dip followed by recovery, or a rally followed by a pullback, maintaining a wide tug-of-war state, without a substantial breakout. Overall focus on whether the highs and lows at 80,300-82,300 can stabilize.